Friday, August 21, 2009

Italian Serie A Preview

Another season is upon us and I suppose the question that needs to be asked is, "will anyone step up and dethrone Inter Milan?"





Now on their fourth consecutive Serie A championship, it has to be said that no matter how they've won them, Inter is a modern day dynasty in Italian Football (as an AC Milan fan, it was excruciating to type that). Under the watch of Manager Jose Mourinho, they have no intention of slowing down. Not the prettiest football to watch at times, but effective and gets results.





But now after having sung the praises of the Nerazzurri, it is clear that teams behind them have shuffled their squads in hopes of catching the champion this season. All that said, this has the potential to be one of the most entertaining seasons in Italy yet. The likes of Juventus, Milan, Roma, Napoli, Genoa, and Fiorentina are all going into the new season with optimism and expectations.





Star Searching
Significant in the off-season transfer movement is the departures of some marquee names in Serie A. Kaka left Milan for Real Madrid, and Zlatan Ibrahimovic left Inter for Barcelona. Additionally, retirements of legendary names like Maldini, Nedved, and Figo have left this league searching for the new big names. However, there were some key arrivals and upcoming stars that will make the Italian top flight exciting to watch this year:




  • Diego, Juventus: The Brazilian playmaker heads to the Turin giants after making a name for himself at Werder Bremen. At a cost of around 24.5 million euros, the Old Lady of Italian Football brings in just the player capable of replacing retired Pavel Nedved. Diego possesses a tremendous combination of passing, vision, and finishing.


  • Klaas Jan Huntelaar, Milan: The Dutch striker became surplus to requirements at Real Madrid after all the new Galacticos arrived at the Bernabeu, and the Rossoneri should stand to benefit for an impressive strike rate (143 goals in 203 professional appearances). Potentially the next great goalscorer at the San Siro at a team that has boasted names like Inzaghi, Shevchenko, and Van Basten.


  • Samuel Eto'o, Inter: The Cameroon striker arrives from Barcelona via a swap with Ibrahimovic going the other way. One of the most prolific strikers this decade, a lot will be put on his shoulders as Inter Milan look to make it five straight Serie A Titles.


  • Stevan Jovetic, Fiorentina: The young Montenegren playmaker directs a potentially powerful attack for La Viola.


  • Ezequiel Lavezzi, Napoli: Sure there are other wonderful Argentinian attackers like Messi, Aguero, and Tevez, but a breakthrough season for Lavezzi is on offer with the reinforcements made in Roberto Donadoni's squad.


How will it play out? Well this will be one of the more competitive seasons to date, with this league overall being pretty top heavy. Yet, there will be a new champion, and many exciting games.



1. Juventus. Marcello Lippi is not an idiot, and is on to something here when he predicts that the Old Lady will reclaim the Scudetto. The addition of Diego was perfect, and bringing in Felipe Melo to provide some bite in midfield was essential to. There is plenty of experience and goalscoring power to lift Juve to the top this season. The big question mark will be Ciro Ferrara's inexperience as a top flight manager. Can he manage all this talent?



2. Inter. The Nerazzurri's efforts to make it five straight should fall short this season. I have argued that Mourinho will miss Ibrahimovic's ability to create goals out of nothing, and while Eto'o and Milito are nice additions up front, the lack of playmaking in midfield could catch up to them this season. Getting Lucio from Bayern Munich was a terrific get to shore up the back line, and they have one of the more underrated goalkeepes in Julio Cesar.



3. Milan. Transition year for the Rossoneri, but will have enough in the squad to finish third. A lot will be expected of Ronaldinho and Pato to help carry the attack, but the return of Alessandro Nesta could will help strengthen things at the back. This season will be all about stabilizing their place in Serie A and the Champions League. Like Juventus, Milan are breaking in an inexperienced coach in Leonardo.



4. Fiorentina. Cesare Prandelli has assembled a team that could be sneaky good this season and will make life miserable for the title contenders in Serie A this season. La Viola play an attacking brand of football that features Alberto Gilardino and Adrian Mutu. Felipe Melo is a loss but has been replaced by experienced midfield players like Cristiano Zanetti and Marco Marchionni. The question with this team is the overall experience, as 11 teenage players make up the squad.



5. Napoli. This is your fly-under-the-radar team of the summer in Italy. With all the noise being made with the big three teams in this league, Roberto Donadoni quietly reinforced this squad and from the looks of it they will be a contender if all goes well. As I mentioned, they have a lot of quality in attack with Ezequiel Lavezzi, but also with playmaker Marek Hamsik and German Denis. Donadoni has also added former Udinese hitman Fabio Quagliarella to the mix. Luca Cigarini is an Italian under-21 who has a future with the Senior national team and will help hold down the midfield. Quite potentially could be one of the surprises of the season.


6. AS Roma. Even with the departure of players like Roberto Aquilani and Christian Panucci, Roma still have some decent pieces in place that will allow them to compete. Of course they can always rely on their talismanic captain, Francesco Totti. In addition, they will be solid enough in midfield with players like Daniele De Rossi and Simone Perrotta. In terms of numbers, Roma seem a little thinner as a squad and that could keep them out of the Champions League places yet again.


7. Genoa. They lose top scorer Diego Milito to Inter Milan but can replace those 24 league goals with the arrival of Hernan Crespo from Inter and Sergio Floccari from Atalanta. Their 39 goals allowed last season was most among the teams that finished in the top 5, and they have bolstered their defence with the permanent signing of Domenico Criscito from Juventus and Italy #2 goalkeeper Marco Amelia from Palermo.


8. Lazio. Plenty of attacking power in this side with Mauro Zarate, Tomasso Rocchi, and Goran Pandev all part of the scoring last season. Now Julio Cruz is added to that mix, a veteran striker who scored some clutch goals for Inter last season. If they can sort out their defensive issues (55 goals conceded), they could push higher.


9. Udinese. Losing Quagliarella to Napoli will hurt, but they hope veteran striker Bernardo Corradi will help make up for the loss of production. There's still plenty of talent in the team with players like Simone Pepe, Gokhan Inler, and Antonio Di Natale (though still out through injury). Gaetano D'Agostino is a player for the future.


10. Sampdoria. In the end, this might be a very low prediction for Samp. Veteran manager Luigi Del Neri takes over after a spell at Atalanta, and they added some nice pieces to the mix of talent already in place. Antonio Cassano and Giampaolo Pazzini will have a full season together (Pazzini arrived to score 11 league goals from midseason) as strike partners, and Franco Semioli brings some experience in midfield.


11. Palermo. The Rosanero enjoyed an 8th place finish but could find times a little tougher this season simply because the teams ahead of them improved. They had the fourth best home record last season and goals were plentiful when playing on their turf in Sicily (42 in 19 games). They had trouble meeting that success off the island and that ended up being their undoing. The core of this team returns with experience in midfield with Marco Bresciano and the attacking combination of Diego Cavani and Fabrizio Miccoli mean that the goals will still be there. Interesting to note that Walter Zenga arrives as manager after a spell at Sicilian rivals Catania.


12. Cagliari. The Sardinians enjoyed a surprise 9th place finish last season on the strength of emerging talent Robert Acquafresca. He's now gone along with midfielder Michele Fini. Alessandro Matri must now provide the attack partnership for Jeda, who will have the burden of scoring more goals to keep them afloat.


13. Atalanta. Robert Acquafresca arrives on loan to assume the scoring burden that is left by Sergio Floccari but losing that midfield presence in Luca Cigarini, and the managerial experience of Luigi Del Neri will hurt.

14. Parma. They'll call on the experience of Christian Panucci in defense, and a loan strike partnership of Alberto Paloschi and Valeri Bojinov to stay afloat in their first season back in Serie A.

15. Bologna. They have an exprienced striker in Marco Di Vaio but he will eventually need some help in attack.

16. Catania. 19th in Serie A in away form last season (1 win in 19 tries) has to improve.

17. Siena. Many key departures to their team from last season but with Massimo Maccarone and Juventus prodigy Paolucci they ought to have enough to survive.

18. Chievo Verona. Pellissier is back to lead the scoring charge but this is a team that spent a chunk of the season at the foot of the Serie A table and has done little to stay alive.

19. AS Bari. Spent aggressively in the close season to get a large squad. Vitali Kutuzov appears useful but overall will have a hard time surviving.

20. Livorno. Veteran striker Cristiano Lucarelli arrives from Parma but is a shell of his former self.

So there you have it, I like the Old Lady to knock off Inter this season while Milan will finish 3rd. Fiorentina and Napoli will look to impress this season and it looks like 7-8 teams will be playing to survive relegation. Should be an interesting season in Italy.

Hit me up with your thoughts as always.







Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Bundesliga Preview

While the Premier League is the most followed, and Italy and Spain were dominated by Inter Milan and Barcelona respectively, the German Bundesliga was certainly the most competitive of all the leagues last season.





Down to the Wire.
Eight points separated 5th place from 1st when it was all said and done. Hoffenheim took the league by storm and were league leaders for 15 of the first 21 weeks before falling off and finishing 7th (Ibisevic's injury played a big part). Usual suspects like Bayern Munich, Stuttgart, and Hamburg were making their run. In the end, it was Wolfsburg who rose above the competition and captured the title by two points over Bayern Munich.





Plenty of goals.
Germany's top flight was arguably the most entertaining. Plenty of high scoring games as the league totalled 894 goals over the 306 game schedule, for an average of 2.92 goals per game. The Premier League averaged 2.47 goals per game, Serie A 2.6 goals per game, and the Germans even nip the Spaniards who averaged 2.90 goals per game (take away Barca's 105 goals and then see how it looks). As my friend Kirk would say: "Shots bring goals." And with the goalscoring talent on offer this season, there ought to be plenty of goals scored again this season.





Five you'll know more about.
So if you were to play a little word associtation, if I said Bundesliga players, you'd probably come back and say Franck Ribery. Well there are five players that are worth keeping an eye on as this season unfolds:




  • Edin Dzeko, Wolfsburg: The Bosnian striker was a summer target of teams like Arsenal and AC Milan. And with good reason. You look at his physical stature, and his finishing quality, you see glimpses of Zlatan Ibrahimovic (who by blood is Bosnian). Along with Grafite, they combine to form a deadly goalscoring combination (they accounted for 54 of the Wolves' 80 league goals). Sure to give defenses fits once again this season.
  • Vedad Ibisevic, Hoffenheim: The former Saint Louis University standout was tearing up the Bundesliga during the first half of last season, scoring 18 goals in 17 games, then he ruptured his ACL in a training game during the winter break. As he went, so did Hoffenheim's title hopes. They'll look to his return to help rejuvenate the side.
  • Pavel Pogrebnyak, Stuttgart: The new arrival from Zenit St. Petersburg will be depended on to pick up the scoring slack left by Mario Gomez.
  • Mesut Ozil, Werder Bremen: One of the stars for Germany at the UEFA Under 21s, he'll be given the unenviable resposnibility of filling Diego's boots.
  • Mladen Petric, Hamburg: Actually scored more league goals last season than Ivica Olic, who departed for Bayern Munich. He'll be relied on to be the leading scorer again. He'll have help with Paolo Guerrero returning and Ze Roberto (former Bayern) providing the playmaking.

So How Will It Look?

Giving this some careful consideration, with all the changes and some of the surprising performers last season, I think the season in Germany will end up looking something like this:

  1. Bayern Munich: They get top scorers from title rivals Stuttgart (Mario Gomez) and Hamburg (Ivica Olic). In addition, Louis van Gaal arrives as manager to bring a more attacking approach. How much will they miss Lucio?
  2. Schalke 04: I think that the Gelsenkirchen side will bounce back this season and they have a stabilizing force in new manager Felix Magath (title winning manager last season at Wolfsburg) who knows the landscape well in Germany.
  3. Wolfsburg: Magath's former team keeps their attack intact under new manager Armin Veh. The burden of European fixtures on the schedule will make repeating as champions more challenging.
  4. Stuttgart: Replacing Gomez with Pogrebnyak will turn out to be a positive, and an old friend in Aleksander Hleb returns to provide the playmaking.
  5. Hoffenheim: The team that captured everyone's imagination last season will prove that they're here to stay. Ibisevic's return is a big plus, as is the addition of Josip Simunic to shore up the back line.
  6. Bayer Leverkusen: Bruno Labbadia departs as manager to Hamburg, in steps experienced boss Jupp Heynckes. Patrick Helmes and Stefan Kiessling return so the scoring power is intact, and Heynckes will work to improve the team's defensive performance.
  7. Hamburg: Even with Olic' departure, there is enough playmaking and scoring power to keep things interesting. Priority one is to get that goals against total down (47 in 34 games).
  8. Werder Bremen: First season A.D. (After Diego) will be all about maintaining stability. 50 goals conceded last season won't get it done and better will be expected of Mertesacker, Wiese and co. Tim Borowski arrives from Bayern Munich to help provide some steel in midfield.
  9. Borussia Dortmund: A largely unchanged squad at Signal Iduna Park for the side that had the 2nd best defensive record in Germany last season. With other sides strengthening their squads, they run the risk of getting found out.
  10. FC Koln: Lukas Podolski's arrival means the team will finish two places better than last season. They could do even better if new signing Maniche pans out in midfield.
  11. Hertha Berlin: Too many departures (Voronin, Pantelic, Andre Lima, and Simunic) for Hertha to mount the title challenge they offered last season.
  12. Hannover 96: An 11th place finish last season despite having the worst goals against record (69 in 34 games). Coach Dieter Hecking has signed reinforcements to shore the back line up and retains the services of German international goalkeeper Robert Enke.
  13. Borussia M'Gladbach: The deck has been shuffled and the addition of Raul Bobadilla at striker (44 goals in 78 appearances for Grasshopper Zurich) will give them some attacking help.
  14. Eintracht Frankfurt: Relying on midfielder Caio to step up and be the player the expected when he became their record signing a couple years ago.
  15. SC Freiburg: Dominated 2. Bundesliga last season and have added some depth to attempt survival this season. Losing defender Daniel Schwaab to Bayer Leverkusen could be a problem.
  16. VFL Bochum: A smaller warchest to work with than most other German clubs when it comes to transfers, they face a steep mountain to climb for survival. This is not a relegation spot, but they will have to playoff with the 3rd place team from 2. Bundesliga in a promotion/relegation tie.
  17. FC Nurnberg: Gained promotion in said playoff in style but have a largely unchanged squad. Not a recipe for top-flight survival.
  18. FC Mainz: Injruies in the preseason have hurt them, and there is just not enough quality to hang with the big boys.

For those that are German and are offended by my lack of umlauts, I apologize, I looked all over for them on this and do not have access apparently. Otherwise I hope you enjoyed my read on how Germany will look this season. If you have an opinion otherwise, I'll be happy to hear it.