Thursday, November 19, 2009

The Occasional Rant 11.19.09: that handball, possible WC Draw pots.

I have so much fallout from the "Hand of Fraud" to rant about, as well as the World Cup Draw, why friendlies suck and other stuff in my latest installment of The Occasional Rant. Have a look:

Football Association of Ireland Chief Executive John Delaney is calling for the integrity of my blog to be questioned and the FAI is demanding a replay of my previous The Occasional Rant.

"Only don't tell me that you're innocent. Because it insults my intelligence and it makes me very angry. Now, who approached you first? Barzini or Tattalgia?"................... Let's make one thing perfectly clear about this whole situation with the Henry handball: FIFA got what they wanted at the cost of their integrity, but it didn't start at that controversial qualizer.
Prior to this incident was the fact that FIFA changed the rules of the UEFA zone playoff draw, once it became possible that World powers France, Portugal, and Germany were thought to be in the playoff mix (Germany avoided this and won their qualifying group). Originally it was supposed to be 8 teams, one pot, two teams drawn out means they play each other and then the process would be complete. Realizing the danger of any of these three teams failing to qualify for their big event, FIFA seeded the playoff teams based on their rankings. As a result; France, Portugal, and Russia avoid drawing each other. Ireland were angry with this ruling at the time as well because, you guessed it, they faced the prospect of drawing any of these teams due to their lower world ranking.
So should the events of yesterday shock you? While I was outraged and now my wife thinks Thierry Henry is the devil, in retrospect it shouldn't come as a shock. FIFA seemed to be going to unreasonable lengths to get the big boys into their tournament next summer. First by changing the rules toward the end of the qualifying campaign, and now by allowing an illegal goal to stand.
But let's make sure that something gets understood here, it would be an even bigger shock if FIFA lets the integrity of the game prevail and allows the match to be replayed. There is a precedent, believe it or not, when Uzbekistan and Bahrain were forced to replay a playoff in World Cup 2006 qualifying because of an official's decision to call a penalty that was incorrect. But the precedent only goes as far as enforcing the replay, as football365.com reports, because FIFA ruled that the official wrongly applied the Laws of the Game. Here's the blurb about it from their website:
However, in that instance, the referee was guilty of wrongly applying the rules rather than missing an offence. An indirect free-kick was awarded against Uzbekistan when one of their players encroached on the Bahrain penalty area as the Uzbeks successfully converted a penalty. The correct interpretation would have been to order the penalty to be retaken.
In the France v Ireland situation, it's a matter of the referee missing an offense, not of a failure to correctly apply the rules. On those grounds, it's hard to justify a replay. Plus, it's a little easier to order Uzbekistan and Bahrain to have a replay than to have the French agree to anything after they have seized victory.
Weird cruel twist of irony or something like that from all of this.....................I also have to get a half-chuckle out of all of this. Many of you have probably seen that commercial which campaigns sportsmanship. If you haven't here goes. It's a high school championship basketball game and a key play happens where a ball goes out of bounds off a pass deflected by the opposing player. The referee misses the deflection and rewards possession to the opposing team. During a timeout, the player tells the coach he touched it and needs to tell the officials as much. His teammates are mad at him but the coach commends him for his honesty. Wild guess, but Thierry Henry probably never saw this commercial. I can only remember watching this the night before the France-Ireland game and saying to my wife: "you tell me when this is ever going to happen in an important game." Love the message of the ad, but reality paints a different picture.
"Ladies and gentlemen, I have been to the Great Wall of China, I have seen the Pyramids of Egypt, I've even witnessed a grown man satisfy a camel. But never in all my years as a sportscaster have I witnessed something as improbable, as impossible, as what we've witnessed here today!"...................................... If the Hand of Fraud doesn't trigger FIFA to start getting more aggressive with putting in motion some form of replay technology, then nothing will. My proposal would be to give the 4th official a monitor to look at for each goal and some of the other activity (like overruling penalties when the foul might have been simulated). All the 4th official is doing now is wearing a FIFA or UEFA jacket, keeping track of stoppage time to add on, and serving coffee and bread to each of the teams' technical areas. Give him a monitor to review these goals. Strides have been made with allowing the officials to have headsets, now let's make the next natural progression.
No, Tom Henning Overbo is not sending Martin Hansson a gift basket to thank him for taking the attention away................................................. I have harped on this in the past, as someone who coaches this sport. There is a universal theme in competitive athletics that no one seems to talk about.
If you do not want the officials to become a factor that contributes to you being on the wrong end of a result, then do your part to make sure that doesn't happen. Be grouchy all you want about Martin Hansson (and the assistant referee who was not in position, either to make the call), but in so doing, be sure you call out John O'Shea, Robbie Keane, and Damien Duff all for missing great chances that would have prevented extra time from happening in the first place. I said the same thing about Chelsea and the chances they missed to put Barcelona away in the Champions League semifinals.
I am not apologzing for the ineptitude of the officials, I am just recognizing that more could be done by the team you support. And say the officials got it right, it's not like the Irish would go to South Africa, they would still need to beat France on penalties.
Kinda like a tree falling in a forest but no one was around to witness it, so did it really fall?....................................... No, I don't think Russia is finding any consolation in what happened in Paris. No matter who grabs all the headlines in the last day of qualifying, that was an all-timer of a meltdown from the Russians in their defeat at Slovenia.
There is no truth to the rumor that Guus Hiddink will be shopping for houses in Madrid or Liverpool in the coming weeks. At least not yet.
The Irish aren't the only ones that got jobbed................................. the World Cup draw will take place on December 4th and the World will be watching to see how the pool play will shake out for the first round. The 32 nations will be divided into 8 pots of 4 teams each. The first pot are the seeded teams based on current FIFA ranking and performance in the previous World Cups. Why I bring this up is because France now will be a seeded team. Had they been eliminated by Ireland, Holland would have likely been a seeded team. Portugal and USA might have also had a case.
So what to expect from the draw on December 4th? Knee-jerk reaction on my part thinks this will be how the pots are organized:
Pot 1 (Seeded teams): South Africa (host), Italy (holders), Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Spain, England, and France.
Holland, Portugal, and even the USA might have a beef with this but this is likely how it will turn out for the seeded teams. Put in the same pot so they avoid matching up with each other in the first round.
Pot 2: Ghana, Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Algeria, Nigeria, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay
Geographical consideration will be taken into account when these teams are drawn. FIFA will keep the African teams in this pot from being in South Africa's group. Also, The South American teams in this pot will be kept from getting drawn into Brazil or Argentina's group.
Pot 3: Denmark, Holland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Greece, Switzerland, and Serbia.
Straight draw, no restrictions, and set up in the manner that no more than 2 European teams can be drawn in the same group.
Pot 4: USA, Mexico, Honduras, North Korea, South Korea, Australia, Japan, and New Zealand.
Same as pot 3, a straight draw with no restrictions.
The other aspect of the group phase will be the position in the group each team will start in. All seeded teams are automatically in position 1 in their group, so the other teams will be assigned position 2, 3, or 4. If they are in position 2, they play the seeded team in their group first.
So what does this mean for the good 'ol USA? Well, based on my scenario:
  • Nightmare Draw: Brazil, Ivory Coast, Holland
  • Dream Draw: South Africa, Paraguay, Slovenia (France may not be bad either with Algeria and Slovenia)

Of course so many things can happen and the ultimate hope for Sam's Army is the easiest path to the 2nd round possible. Nonetheless, it looks like the World Cup will have some intriguing matchups from the first round onwards. All the previous champions are in it this time around, and 23 of FIFA's top 32 are represented.

Worst FIFA-ranked World Cup team? North Korea, sitting at 91st. New Zealand and South Africa sit in the 80s.

Top ranked team not participating in the World Cup? That would be Croatia, ranked 8th in the World.

That's all for now. Thanks for reading my rant about one of the more controversial moments in football.

Monday, November 9, 2009

The Euro top 25 as of November 9th, 2009

Time to sort out where everyone falls in the top 25. That really big game in London on Sunday means there's a new #1, and what to do with the rest of the pack? Have a look:



1. Chelsea FC
Top of English Premier League, Top of UEFA Champions League Group D
Yeah, I'm Convinced: The diamond midfield is working, there's harmony between Drogba and Anelka, and no one is scoring on them at Stamford Bridge. Just one goal allowed at home in all competitions back in August against Hull.
I'm not so sure: They couldn't close out a struggling Atletico Madrid last week, and the debate will carry on all season whether or not John Terry's goal against Manchester United should have stood. This is still an aging team, and it's yet to be seen if they can sustain this form all season. History tells us a dip is coming at some point.



2. FC Barcelona
Top of La Liga, 3rd in UEFA Champions League Group F
Yeah, I'm Convinced:
That's 4 goals on a Real Mallorca side that, by La Liga standards, was rather stingy in defense going in. Unbeaten through 10 in a deeper than you think Spanish top flight.
I'm not so sure: The Champions League struggles are glaring. They have yet to prove they can unlock a defense that's prepared to keep them out of goal. Believe it or not, their European season hinges on getting a win at home against Inter on November 24th.



3. Manchester United FC
3rd in English Premier League, top of UEFA Champions League Group B
Yeah, I'm Convinced:
The win over Arsenal is looking better and better, how many teams do you know can rally from 3-1 down to rescue a point? That was a 95-minute battle with Chelsea, and should have come out with a draw. If Chelsea is #1, then Man United could be #1A.
I'm not so sure: A team known for its attacking prowess could only manage 2 shots on goal over 95 minutes at Chelsea. The Liverpool loss looks terrible right now, and this is a team that better get healthy quick.



4. Arsenal FC
2nd in English Premier League, top of UEFA Champions League Group H
Yeah, I'm Convinced:
What? Ahead of Manyoo in the standings but behind them in the rankings? The Gunners are crushing and killing everything in their way right now. The Tottenham win looks really good.
I'm Not So Sure: Winning 4-1 at Wolves does not solve the away issues. A team this good should win on their travels at West Ham and AZ Alkmaar. The early struggles at Standard Liege from Matchday #1 in the Champions League are still not forgotten.



5. Sevilla FC
3rd in La Liga, top of UEFA Champions League Group G
Yeah, I'm Convinced:
They still have the win over Real Madrid to be proud of, and just beat a Villarreal team that was looking like it was coming out of its funk. They have the attacking talent to matchup with Manchester United and Arsenal.
I'm Not So Sure: If you're this good, you shouldn't be struggling to a draw at home against a Stuttgart team that has had all sorts of issues this season.



6. Real Madrid
2nd in La Liga, 2nd in UEFA Champions League Group C
Yeah, I'm Convinced:
All things considered, they coped rather nicely without CR9. No shame dropping that game at Sevilla, or Milan on their current form. Oh, and Mr. Ronaldo is back from injury.
I'm Not So Sure: There are still issues on the backline. El Clasico is coming up at the end of the month, and Mr. Pellegrini would be wise to get things sorted out.



7. Bordeaux
Top of French Ligue 1, Top of UEFA Champions League Group A
Yeah, I'm Convinced:
They are top of their league and Champions League group. In so doing, they have beaten Monaco, drawn Juventus, and twice beat Bayern Munich. However.....
I'm Not So Sure: Beating Bayern Munich are at present the signature wins, and it's not much to get excited about right now. There's also an ugly 2-0 defeat to bottom-half of the table Lille to deal with too. Juventus comes calling November 25th, though. Win that and they may be top 5.



8. Lyon
2nd in French Ligue 1, Top of UEFA Champions League Group E
Yeah, I'm Convinced:
Just when it looked like Liverpool was crawling back into contention for a Champions League knockout place, Lisandro Lopez might have taken it away from them. You tell me if you want your team to face this side right now.
I'm Not So Sure: They needed that Lopez effort to draw a below-strength Liverpool side, and on three occasions dropped two points in that (albeit thrilling) 5-5 draw with Marseille at the weekend. The league form is worrying, just 4 points out of their last 12 possible.



9. Inter
Top of Italian Serie A, Top of UEFA Champions League Group F
Yeah, I'm Convinced:
The 4-0 derby win over Milan suddenly looks fantastic, and they're starting to distance themselves from the chasing pack in Italy.
I'm Not So Sure: It took a furious rally in the last 5+ minutes to beat Dynamo Kiev, top their Champions League group, and avoid their trip to Barcelona being an elimination match. Drawing a struggling Roma side at the weekend shows how wildly inconsistent they are.



10. Rubin Kazan
Top of Russian Premier League, 2nd in UEFA Champions League Group F
Yeah, I'm Convinced:
5 points from 3 matches against Inter and Barcelona. 5 points from 3 matches against Inter and Barcelona. 5 points from 3 matches against Inter and Barcelona.
I'm Not So Sure: While the Russian Premier League is suddenly starting to produce some terrific football (and rising stars), it's not the same level as the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, or Bundesliga. Would you take this team over Milan, Juventus, or Leverkusen at the moment?



11. Juventus
2nd in Serie A, 2nd in UEFA Champions League Group A
That oopsie against Napoli are keeping them out of the top 10. Otherwise they are yet to lose in the Champions League this season and turning on the style in Italy (12 goals in their last 3 matches). Showdown at Bordeaux next in the Champions League and a prove it game coming up against Inter in a few weeks.



12. AC Milan
3rd in Serie A, Top of UEFA Champions League Group C
Do you want to play them now? Since that embarrassing loss to FC Zurich, they've been unbeaten in their last eight in all competitions (5 wins, 3 draws). The four points from Real Madrid look great. Pato is emerging into the next big thing, and Thiago Silva should be in the discussion of best defenders in the world.



13. Tottenham Hotspur
4th in English Premier League
That's a decent looking win against Sunderland. Losses this season include Arsenal, Manchester United, and Chelsea (no shame in those), and with those three out of the way for now, a great chance to rack up some points.



14. Bayer Leverkusen
Top of German Bundesliga
Unbeaten in what's looking like a wide open German top flight, and like I said in the past, they are keeping things tight at the back. The sharing of points with contenders like Werder Bremen, Hamburg, and Schalke might look good now, but could hurt them once their league form starts to escape them.


15. Fiorentina
4th in Serie A, 2nd in UEFA Champions League Group E
Scored for fun over two matches against Debrecen, and grinded out a big 1-0 at Udinese over the weekend. They are a win or a draw away from ending Liverpool's Champions League campaign before the New Year. Adrian Mutu and Alberto Gilardino are forming quite a strike force, and wunderkind Stevan Jovetic has been out through this recent run. They've really dropped because the the likes of Juventus, Milan, and Bordeaux have picked up impressive wins or been on impressive runs.

16. Valencia
4th in La Liga, 2nd in UEFA Europa League Group B
10 match unbeaten run in all competitions, and only 1 loss so far all season. David Villa is being David Villa, scoring 10 goals in all competitions (8 in La Liga), and the defense is keeping it just tight enough to get results.

17. Aston Villa
5th in English Premier League
They still have that win over Chelsea and just put 5 past a Bolton team that was playing reasonably well recently (save for getting crushed by Chelsea). A disappointing loss at West Ham means they stay put at 17.

18. Werder Bremen
2nd in German Bundesliga, top of UEFA Europa League Group L
Plenty of attacking options in this team, and despite drawing their last two league matches, they've been on a tear. Quietly have put together 19 straight unbeaten in all competitions.

19. Hamburg
3rd in German Bundesliga, 2nd in UEFA Europa League Group C
Suddenly have forgotten how to win in Germany, as they have one loss and three draws in their last four. What's worse, they would be top had they not split the honors with Leverkusen and Schalke.

20. Deportivo
5th in La Liga
Valladolid finally hit them up for 4 goals a couple weeks back, but since then have gotten on track, big win at the weekend over Getafe as they jockey for position for a Champions League place.

21. Manchester City
6th in English Premier League
Suddenly getting exposed, playing uninspired, or both. 5 straight draws, Aston Villa is understandable. But Wigan, Fulham, Birmingham, and Burnley? Arsenal has yet to play Burnley but they beat the other three by a combined 8-1. The difference betweend contending and pretending. Still, on their day, could be as good as anyone. Yes, yes, they beat Arsenal but we're going on current form here.

22. Schalke 04
4th in German Bundesliga
Draws with fellow contenders Bayer Leverkusen, Hamburg, and Bayern Munich suggest the Felix Factor is taking effect. Let the Gelsenkirchen side hang around under Magath's watch, and you may see them at the top of the Bundesliga.

23. Wolfsburg
5th in German Bundesliga, 2nd in UEFA Champions League Group B
Huge win at Hoffenheim on Saturday, and in position to reach the last 16 of the Champions League. Winning 3-0 in Turkey at Besiktas suggests they could be a force going forward. Misimovic is in great form.

24. FC Porto
3rd in Portuguese League, 2nd in UEFA Champions League Group D
Really here because they earned their place in the knockout stages of the Champions League, but sitting 3rd behind Benifca and Braga means maybe they should make this list too.

25. Olympiakos
2nd in Greek league, 2nd in UEFA Champions League Group H
Slipped a little by losing to Standard Liege in the Champions League and drawing Iraklis at the weekend, need a couple strikers to get healthy.

OTHERS CONSIDERED
Panathinaikos
Fenerbahce
Dynamo Kiev
SL Benifca
SC Braga
Bayern Munich
Sampdoria
Napoli

So do you agree or disagree? Hit me up with your thoughts.

Monday, November 2, 2009

What the weekend told us.

A very intriguing weekend leading into a midweek full of matchups from the Champions League and Europa League leads us to some things to the following observations.



England: Liverpool's Premier League title challenge is officially over.

Five losses from their first 11 matches and only 18 points to show for this season, you can look at those statistics and realize that it's done and dusted for Rafa Benitez' men (not to mention it could be done and dusted for Benitez, he will be evaluated over the next three games). Taking Fernando Torres and Yossi Benayoun out of the Fulham match on Saturday when he did, suggests he could care less about the Premier League and he is desparate to salvage their currently failing European campaign. With the laundry list of injured players Benitez has, he needs two of his best attacking players fit for the trip to Lyon.

Back to the domestic challenge. There will be at least one more loss before the season ends with a trip to Old Trafford, two matches with Arsenal, and two with Manchester City still on the slate. You have to go back to 2001 when Manchester United lifted the title on six defeats. A couple teams have since done it on 5, but with Chelsea and Manchester United now beating everyone they should beat, it's not looking good.



Italy: That's the Napoli I expected to see.

So really? All it took was a managerial change? Walter Mazzarri took over from Roberto Donadoni and in his first four Serie A matches: 3 wins and one draw. And it's an impressive list: after beating Bologna, they beat Fiorentina, drew Milan, and beat Juventus (all three of these tams are playing in the Champions League by the way). The four points from the last two games were earned in come from behind mode. All four of these matches have a style to them, with 8 goals scored. The scintallating run of form from the Neapolitans have vaulted them to 6th, and are potentially as good as anyone on their day.

This is a loaded team that will continue to give the big boys of Serie A problems. They have a playmaker in Marek Hamsik (who has drawn the attention of Manchester United and Chelsea), Argentinian Ezequiel Lavezzi (who we'd all know a little better if a certain Mr. Messi wasn't around), and added Fabio Quagliarella from Udinese. The have the future of the Italian midfield with Luca Cigarini (would have loved to see him in Milan) as well.

Germany: Bundesliga will go down to the wire, again.
They're doing that thing again where a lot of goals are being scored (average of 2.7 goals per game) and they're also doing that thing where 5 points separates 8th from 1st. And they are not seeming to beat up on each other, they are sharing points. Mainz is sitting 8th and they played Wolfsburg (7th) to a thrilling 3-3 draw. The big match of the weekend, between Schalke and Bayer Leverkusen ended 2-2. Leverkusen currently top the league, so when Werder Bremen and Hamburg had their chance to overtake them, they didn't. Werder Bremen played a 2-2 draw with relegation-threatened Nuremburg. Hamburg hosted, and graciously contributed to, Borussia Monchengladbach's survival cause in a 3-2 loss. Bayern couldn't manage a goal at struggling Stuttgart, leaving Hoffenheim the only winner in the top 8, beating Freiburg 1-0.

Spain: Don't call this a 2-horse race just yet.
I'm not only going by the evidence of the last minute oopsie by Barcelona against Osasuna on Saturday, but the fact that Sevilla and Valencia are doing all they can to make sure it's not about the El Clasico sides. Sevilla sit 3rd on 19 points and Valencia are 4th on 18, 4 and 5 points respectively. Each of these teams ooze class, not to the effect that Barcelona and Real Madrid do, but they have some quality players.

At Sevilla, they have two talented strikers in Luis Fabiano and Frederic Kanoute. They are supported by a host of talented midfielders like Jesus Navas, Adriano, and Renato. They can also call on experienced players like Aldo Duscher and Didier Zokora. Miguel Jiminez has forged a talented side that will be in it to the end.

At Valencia, many rumors are swirling around whether they will stick together, and looking at the talent on the team it's no wonder. It starts with David Villa, one of the best strikers in the world and could play anywhere he wants. He's stayed loyal to Los Che but that loyalty will again be tested. Another striker you'll learn more about is 6'8" Serbian Nikola Zigic (a Sunderland target in the summer). You also know about David Silva (a Man Utd and Liverpool target), but get to know Juan Manuel Mata, another Spanish winger that will make a name for himself as the season goes on. Carlos Marchena, Ruben Baraja, and David Albelda provide them with the experience. And they have depth in midfield with players like Ever Banega, Manuel Fernandes, Joaquin, and Vicente Rodriguez. Plenty of talent on display at the Mestalla. The team is loaded and if they can keep the defense tight, they'll be able to hang with anyone in Spain.

That's all I got, more later this week. Rankings come out next week after the Chelsea-Manyoo game.