Friday, December 4, 2009

World Cup Draw: Winners and Losers

The knee-jerk reaction to the World Cup Draw.

WINNERS:

Argentina
Much was made about the Argentinians failures in playing at altitude (lost qualifiers in Ecuador and Bolivia). Mention was made that the sites for the seeded team in Group B would be played in the lowest of altitudes in South Africa. It also helps that they had a very favorable draw for Group B with Nigeria, South Korea, and Greece. Nigeria is a familiar foe to Diego Maradona's team, having faced them in the 1994 and 2002 World Cups. Nigeria, however, has not been the Nigeria of old. South Korea will have some really pacy players but the quality of Messi and co. should be too much for them. Greece will be organized under Otto Rehhagel and arguably the toughest test, but the former European champions lack the attacking power to keep up. Oh, and they'll get the runner up of Group A, which could be any one of South Africa, Uruguay, or Mexico. If Maradona doesn't screw this up, the Argentinians are set up for a deep run.

France
More reason for the Republic of Ireland to be pissed. Les Bleus got the luck of the draw for the European teams in pot 4 by landing in South Africa's group (had Ireland advanced they would be in Group A). They open with Uruguay and then Mexico before closing out against the hosts. Uruguay barely qualified, outlasting Costa Rica over 180 minutes and Mexico has failed to make it past the 2nd round in the last 4 World Cups (they reached the quarterfinals as hosts in 1986). South Africa is their last opponent, and while they are the hosts, they are the lowest ranked team according to FIFA. They should win this group, and get the runner up of a weak Group B (Nigeria, South Korea, or Greece will await).

USA
Sure, everyone in pots 2-4 wanted to end up in South Africa's group, but the odds of that for Sam's Army was 1 in 8. England is not the worst thing to happen to them as far as the seeded team they drew, but will be a physically imposing challenge. On the other hand, they get an Algeria side that beat Egypt (USA beat Egypt 3-0 in June) and a Slovenia side that are here thanks to a Russian meltdown. Chances as great as ever to reach the 2nd round. They're good enough to realistically get a draw with England, and after that it will come down to goal difference with the other two opponents. A nice little cure for not having Charlie Davies and potentially Oguchi Onyewu next summer.

Italy
The defending World champions will be very happy with this draw. Starting with a front heavy Paraguay that should give them problems but the Azzurri should be good enough to win. They also get New Zealand and Slovakia. The disappointing showing in the Confederations Cup for the Italians will be a motivating factor for them. Traditionally slow starters, this is a group that they'll survive their slow start in.

Spain
The defending European champions got what I think is a draw that plays perfectly for them. Going back in history, Spain has never lost a match to any of the teams they face in their group (in 18 games against Switzerland they have won 15 and drawn 3, outscoring them 45-15). If they use history as a motivator, they'll be very prepared for Honduras, who tied them in their only meeting, in the 1982 World Cup (oh by the way, Spain was host). Chile have some up and coming players but they will surely be trying to play for group runner-up.

Our Ears
Vuvuzelas were banned from use at the draw. However, they have not been banned yet from the tournament because they are part of the culture. But for the first time we watched something broadcast live in South Africa that didn't leave us needing to get our hearing checked.

LOSERS:

South Africa
I'm talking about the team, not the nation that's hosting. It looks like the host nation, aside from the vuvuzelas, are ready to stage this event. Getting Mexico out of pot 2 was likely the least desirable draw for them. Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez are capable of scoring on anyone in this group for Uruguay. They finish with a French side that, considering the circumstances of their qualification, will be determined to prove to the world that they deserve to be here. Could be the first host to fail to qualify for the 2nd round.

Germany
They benefitted from rather easy groups in 2006 and 2002, and finally will have a group where they will have to be at their best. Australia reached the 2nd round last season and have enough quality to pull off a surprise. Meanwhile, Serbia and Ghana both have the blend of skill and physical quality to upset the Germans. Consdering the draws that Argentina, England, Italy and Spain got, this is a tough one for the three-time winners.

All of Group G
Yeeeeeeesh!!!! First off, welcome back to the World Cup, North Korea. That was nice what you did in 1966, beating Italy and giving Portugal a run for their money. Here, we'll give you another shot at Portugal. And for good measure, you get Brazil and Ivory Coast as well.

The suggestion is that North Korea might not want to show up. But Brazil finally gets a group where they are really going to have to earn their keep. Their groups in 2006, 2002 and 1998 were cakewalks at best. The Ivorians are loaded and probably the best African team in the competition. Portugal have reigning World Player of the Year Cristiano Ronaldo, and while they struggled through qualification, are very capable of topping this group. This, like the Argentina-England-Sweden-Nigeria group of 2002, is a World Cup in itself, except for North Korea of course.

Charlize Theron
Brought absolutely nothing to this procedure and the draw could have been shortened by about 15 minutes without her up there. A friend of mine suggested that maybe she was acting. She's acted FAR better than that.

Who were your winners and losers of the draw? Hit me up with your thoughts.

2 comments:

  1. Good, educated analysis as always.
    Here are my initial my two cents worth of picks (subject to change):

    Group A: 1) France - Should be smooth sailing.
    2) Uraguay - By default. Mexico, away from Azteca does nothing for me and South Africa's home field advantage is not going to help them much.

    Group B: 1) Argentina - Nuff said.
    2) Greece - They play organized and disciplined enough to squeak past Korea and Nigeria.

    Group C: 1) England - Strong and now well-coached but tends to be weighted down by the burden of high expectations.
    2) USA - They could surprise with a deep run.

    Group D: 1) Germany - I agree this group could give them problems but I still they they have enough to win it.
    2) Ghana - It will be a real dogfight and I've always been fond of the Socceroos but I think Ghana may have enough there, spurred on by the home continent fans to outlast the the other two.

    Group E: 1) Netherlands - They are the best in this group.
    2) Cameroon- Will just edge out the scrappy Japanese and Danes.

    Group F: 1)Italy - The pride of the champions plus they are the class of this group.
    2) Paraguay - They will score enough goals on the other two countries to get through.

    Group G: 1)Brazil - The best of this group of death.
    2)Ivory Coast - They are better on the attack and I think Portugal is overrated.

    Group H: 1) Spain - By a mile. They may not break a sweat .
    2) Honduras - They are spunky enough to outlast Chile and a weak Switzerland.

    If I had to pick a winner I would have to go with Spain. Except for the slip up against Uncle Sam they have been very convincing. They play with great fluidity and they play well as a team. Many of their players are in their prime and they didn't win the Euro by accident.

    That being said I will support Uncle Sam and my German bretheran.

    As always thanks for your time

    Jerod

    ReplyDelete
  2. Good picks Jerod. I think there is potential for failure for multiple European teams. I think that playing a long Euro season and then having to travel to South Africa and play most games at altitude are going to cause some problems. You could see 2002 where the supposed favorites might have problems and some upstarts are going to make a big run (Senegal, South Korea for example).

    ReplyDelete