Champions League, one more round of qualifiers.

Same format as last year if you haven't been following, and the draw to determine the last 10 teams for the Champions League is this Friday morning. The 22 teams that are already in the league stage are:
1FC Internazionale Milano (ITA) – Titleholders 100.867
2FC Barcelona (ESP) 136.951
3Manchester United FC (ENG) 125.371
4Chelsea FC (ENG) 118.371
5Arsenal FC (ENG) 115.371
6FC Bayern München (GER) 110.841
7AC Milan (ITA) 99.867
8Olympique Lyonnais (FRA) 96.748
9Real Madrid CF (ESP) 84.951
10AS Roma (ITA) 83.867
11FC Shakthar Donetsk (UKR) 73.910
12SL Benfica (POR) 72.659
13Valencia CF (ESP) 66.951
14Olympique de Marseille (FRA) 62.748
15Panathinaikos FC (GRE) 56.979
16Rangers FC (SCO) 56.158
17FC Schalke 04 (GER) 54.841
18FC Spartak Moskva (RUS) 33.758
19FC Twente (NED) 25.309
20FC Rubin Kazan (RUS) 21.758
21CFR 1907 Cluj (ROU) 15.898
22Bursaspor (TUR) 6.890

The number to the right is their UEFA Club Coefficient. This number is important as it will determine who the seeded teams will be, who will be in Pot 2, Pot 3, and Pot 4.

The Playoff Round Participants, if I am to have the website interpreted correctly, will be in these pots:

CHAMPIONS ROUTE
Pot 1
FC Basel (SUI) 48.675
RSC Anderlecht (BEL) 42.58
FC Kobenhavn (DEN) 34.47
Hapoel Tel Aviv (ISR) 27.775
Sparta Prague (CZE) 27.395

CHAMPIONS ROUTE
Pot 2
Rosenborg (NOR)
23.98FC Salzburg (AUT)
19.915Partizan Belgrade (SER)
13.8MSK Zilina (SVK)
10.67FC Sheriff (MDA) 5.46

OUTLOOK: Rosenborg has history in the Champions League, although distant, and would be the biggest threat. Still, I can't see any of the teams in the first pot going out in the playoff stage.

LEAGUE ROUTE
Pot 1
Sevilla (ESP) 108.951
Werder Bremen (GER) 94.841
Zenit (RUS) 61.258
Tottenham (ENG) 56.371
Ajax (NED) 55.309

LEAGUE ROUTE
Pot 2
Dynamo Kiev (UKR) 42.910
SC Braga (POR) 39.659
Sampdoria (ITA) 30.867
Auxerre (FRA) 19.748
BSC Young Boys (SUI) 7.675

OUTLOOK: 2 or 3 teams are going to be good enough to reach the league stage and will end up getting shipped to the Europa League. This is obviously the more exciting draw as Dynamo Kiev gave Barcelona and Inter all they wanted at the group stage last season. Sampdoria won't be a pushover either, and Braga demolished Celtic in the first leg of the previous playoff to get here. Sevilla will go through and as a result will be a seeded team in the group stage draw based on their coefficient.

Just thought I would drop a little knowledge on how this works.

Shot From Distance: Wishlist for the 32 Nations who competed in the World Cup

Here is a wishlist for the 32 Nations who just finished the World Cup, what they wish for if they are to qualify for the 2014 World Cup

• South Africa: to play consistently with the determination they showed against Mexico and France.
• Uruguay: For Luis Suarez to become Diego Forlan of 2010, and for Edinson Cavani to become the Luis Suarez of 2010.
• Mexico: A defense to go with all those promising attackers, and for an AR who knows how to raise his flag.
• France: For Zinedine Zidane to find the Fountain of Youth, and for players to actually give a damn about playing for their country.
• Argentina: For Diego Maradona to be tactically competent (heaven help them, they are extedning his contract through the 2014 World Cup), and of course for Lionel Messi to duplicate his club form.
• Korea Republic: for Park Ji Sung to stay healthy.
• Greece: The ability to actually score when it is 11 v 11.
• Nigeria: To be better prepared for 2014 (they should be if they keep Lars Lagerback as manager).
• England: A goalkeeper, goal line technology, and for their fans to be more realistic about how good they actually are.
• USA: To believe they should be a consistent quarterfinalist at the World Cup.
• Slovenia: To close out a 2-0 lead.
• Algeria: To score a goal.
• Germany: that the current crop remains healthy, and to get officials who won't give out rash cards.
• Ghana: Someone to make a PK.
• Australia: An influx of young, promising players, and quickly.
• Serbia: To keep maturing, and for a game plan that doesn't center around putting the ball on Nikola Zigic' head.
• Netherlands: that they get back to the football we know they are good at, and stop with the street fighting.
• Japan: That Keisuke Honda stays healthy.
• Denmark: A creative midfielder, and for Nicklas Bendtner to become like a Laudrup, or an Elkjaer.
• Cameroon: for the 1990 team to time travel to 2014.
• Italy: that their young stars mature and play modern football.
• Paraguay: for one of their promising strikers to actually score a goal.
• New Zealand: to take the next step and win a World Cup match.
• Slovakia: For another world power to underestimate them.
• Brazil: To keep their concentration, and get back to Jogo Bonito.
• Portugal: To score goals. And for Cristiano Ronaldo to duplicate his club form.
• Cote' D'Ivoire: To actually live up to their talent.
• North Korea: To be in a group where they can get at least 1 point.
• Spain: To do that again.
• Chile: To not self destruct against teams in the World top 10.
• Switzerland: Goals.
• Honduras: Goals.

The Frankly Football World Cup XI

Amazing that nearly a month has past and we are descending upon the final in Soccer City on Sunday, preceded of course by the usually entertaining 3rd place match. I don't expect any developments from those games to impact the team I am putting forward now, and as you will see, this edition is dominated by the final four nations.

And why not? They were the most consistent teams in the competition, in terms of how they sought out to play and the success with which they played with. The fun part is that this is a World Cup XI that is missing the marquee names. Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, Kaka, Wayne Rooney, none of these played to the standard that we expect to see from them for club week in and week out (might be a little harsh on Messi as he did have 15 shots on target).

Let's dive into it, shall we?



GOALKEEPER: Iker Casillas, Spain
I was being given a compelling argument by a friend that Martin Stekelenburg of Holland belongs here, but I'm going with the Spaniard on this one. He made a couple of strange decisions, but by and large had the best box presence of all the goalkeepers, and I thought his distribution in the tournament was particularly strong.




RIGHT BACK: Phillip Lahm, Germany
The German captain played with a tireless work rate and a combative spirit. In attack, you could find him bombing down the right hand side in support, as well as do the dirty work in defense. Lahm epitomized German efficiency throughout the competition.




CENTER HALF: Carlos Puyol, Spain
An absolute lionheart in the center of defense, scorer of the winner against Germany and played a big part in keeping Miroslav Klose quiet. Tremendous in defense with his tackling and ability to win aerial battles.



CENTER HALF: Gerard Pique, Spain
I'm not crushing on Spain, really I'm not (though I think they will win the Final). However Pique has been an exceptional complement to Puyol throughout the competition. Pique arguably has good enough technical qualities to play in midfield, very composed on the ball and like a defender, not afraid to make the hard challenge.

LEFT BACK: Maicon, Brazil
He makes my team but he has to move over to the left because Lahm outperformed him in this tournament (though Lahm has more experience from the left hand side, I can always swap them in the run of play). Despite Brazil's disappointing quarterfinal exit, you can't question his work ethic throughout. If you want someone who actually played left back in the World Cup, I wouldn't argue with you if you put Holland's Giovanni van Bronckhorst here (largely because of that goal), or Portugal's Fabio Coentrao (someone from that Portugal backline should get in for shutting out Ivory Coast and Brazil).

RIGHT WINGER: Arjen Robben, Netherlands
Scored what is becoming his trademark goal against Slovakia (running inside from the left and striking from distance with his left foot), and headed the Dutch into the Final. A complete nuisance to Brazil's defense in the quarterfinal as well.

CENTER MIDFIELD: Bastian Schweinsteiger, Germany
Martin Tyler referred to him as "boss" in the Argentina game. You could probably also describe him as that in the England win too. Per fifa.com, Schweinsteiger has covered the most distance in this tournament (68.69 km total, or just over 7 miles a game). He did everything from protecting the back four to running to higher positions off the ball to taking on defenders 1v1 (or 1v3 against Argentina).

CENTER MIDFIELD: Xabi Alonso, Spain
Another midfield policeman who has been responsible for protecting the Spain rearguard as much as keeping possession and staring attacks for his country. Should be credited just as much for Spain's goals against record (2 allowed; that fluke against Switzerland and 1 against Chile when their place in the next round seemed confirmed) as Casillas, Puyol, and Pique.

LEFT WINGER/FORWARD: David Villa, Spain
Most effective in this position, and that was evident by him being kept rather quiet in the semis against Germany when asked to lead the line up front. Tied for the lead on 5 goals, and has scored them in a variety of ways, from poaching to creating his own chances.

ATTACKING CENTER MIDFIELDER: Wesley Sneijder, Netherlands
Level with Villa on goals, the most notable with his head against Brazil, something he is not totally known for. Winning the World Cup on Sunday will cap a dream year for the Inter man, and will have him squarely in the World Player of the Year discussion. Tremendous vision, passing, and of course finishing.

FORWARD: Diego Forlan, Uruguay
Carried his strong form with club right into the World Cup. Put his country on his back to make an improbable semifinal run. Came up with clutch goals against Ghana (arguably the best free kick of the tournament) and Holland. Also functioned quite nicely as a playmaker when Luis Suarez was in the team.

So there's the 11. Who's yours?

The Worst Italy Team in the last 30 years

As I watched this pathetic excuse for a defending World Cup champion stumble through draws with Paraguay and New Zealand, and then finally decide to start playing against Slovakia after they were 2-0 down, I was trying to think back as far as I can remember to determine if there was ever a worse Italy than the 2010 edition that Marcello Lippi trotted out there.



The '86 squad that went out in the 2nd round to France is possible, but they were actually a very good team that had to deal with two of the best players in the world that tournament; Diego Maradona of Argentina (group stage) and Michel Platini of France (2nd round exit). So then I though about 1996 Euros in England, but they did win a match despite going out in the group stages. So forward to Japan/Korea in 2002, and I just think in disgust of the 5 goals they had denied from them by bad officiating. 2004? They didn't lose in matches against Denmark, Sweden, and Bulgaria. I'd say Donadoni's 2008 team, but they had to deal with Holland, Romania, France, and took eventual champ Spain to penalties.



Simply put, this is the worst Italy team I have ever watched in the time I have followed this sport. For three games in this World Cup, I suffered through an Italy that genuinely lacked ideas. There was no plan B once Andrea Pirlo went down injured, and Lippi could have gotten more out of the Statue of David than he got out of Vicenzo Iaquinta and Alberto Gilardino. The defense held up in the first two matches, with the only shots on goal seemingly the goals they allowed (and both on set pieces). Yet, this was an Italy side that was desparate for answers in attack. No, Antonio Cassano, Fabrizio Miccoli, Mario Balotelli, or Francesco Totti would have made this any better. The squad that Lippi picked in theory should have performed better in this World Cup, but his lineups meant an Italy that would be narrow and dreadfully predictable.



I'm going to pick apart the team that Lippi preferred throughout this World Cup, and then outline for incoming manager Cesare Prandelli the team that should be out there in the future.



LIPPI'S TEAM:

• Goalkeeper: Gianlugi Buffon, then Federico Marchetti. Buffon ended up getting a herniated disk in his back during the Paraguay game (apparently from digging the ball out of the net on Paraguay's goal, because that appeared to be his only action that game), so Lippi was forced to play Federico Marchetti for the remaining 2 and a half games. Marchetti stood in well and did his job, as there weren't any howlers that he gave up. When healthy, Buffon is one of the best goalkeepers in the world, but he has been consistently struggling with his fitness for the last two seasons.


• Defender (right full back): Gianluca Zambrotta. Zambrotta has had an amazing career with Il Nazionale, but the fact that his club side preferred to convert a winger to play in the same position, should tell you all you needed to know about him. Zambrotta hardly looked dangerous in attack on the right flank.


• Defender (center half): Fabio Cannavaro. Apparently Lippi didn't watch any Juventus games this season to see how easily picked apart the Juventus defense was in big games. Cannavaro is 36, and while he was an absolute stud at World Cup 2006, he has been well past it for some time.


• Defender (center half): Giorgio Chiellini. Hard to be critical of Chiellini because I think he had to spend a lot of time covering up for Cannavaro and sometimes Zambrotta. A younger center half who is solid on the ball would have been a more ideal partner and might have made a difference in the goals given up against Paraguay and New Zealand.


• Defender (left full back): Domenico Criscito. I actually thought Criscito had a good tournament. He was getting forward down the left flank and helping the Azzurri to keep the ball. He has a lock on this position for the next couple of tournaments.


• Midfielder: Claudio Marchisio. Another Juventus player who I think was asked to work on the left hand side and often looked lost out there.


• Midfielder: Ricardo Montolivo. Pirlo's replacement, and clearly does not have the vision and skill necessary to dictate the tempo that Pirlo does.


• Midfielder: Daniele De Rossi. The next captain, and he should be. He looks fantastic when he has someone with the skillset of Pirlo to partner with in the midfield. All he has to do is be the ball winner and get it to Pirlo to start the attack. He and Montolivo clearly lacked an understanding of each other when the ball had to go forward.


• Midfielder (Winger): Simone Pepe. I liked the idea of Pepe in the team and starting, because he could offer pace and crossing for the strikers. Unfortunately in this tournament, it appeared to me that he was only interested in crossing the ball, and thus making his play awfully predictable. Zambrotta's lack of overlaps forced Pepe's hand.


• Striker: Vicenzo Iaquinta. Another Juve player, and one who only scored 7 goals in all competitions this past season.


• Striker: Alberto Gilardino. He simply cannot do it in the big matches. See his performances for AC Milan. Italy looked like they were playing with 10 men when he was out there.

Antonio Di Natale did a nice job of providing some playmaking up top and certainly was livelier than Gilardino, but he is 32 years old now, so time has passed him by. Mauro Camoranesi got roughly 30 minutes against Paraguay and was impressive, but we know this is his last Cup. Fabio Quagliarella and Christian Maggio got to see time in the 2nd half against Slovakia and each impressed.

So, it's time to move on from the geriatric mess that Lippi sent to Africa, and perhaps help Mr. Prandelli with a list of players who should be representing Italy in Euro 2012 (assuming they get there):

GOALKEEPERS: Federico Marchetti, Salvatore Sirigu, Andrea Consigli
Rationale: Marchetti will be the goalkeeper with experience and having been Buffon's understudy will be ready to take the reins. Sirigu had an impressive season at Palermo and was the last goalkeeper cut for the 2010 World Cup team. He's 23. Andrea Consigli played for the Italian Under-21s and is a promising young goalkeeper.
You could also offer: Marco Amelia. The well-travelled goalkeeper just joined Milan and could potentially revive his career there.

DEFENDERS: Domenico Criscito, Giorgio Chiellini, Salvatore Bocchetti, Leonardo Bonucci, Christian Maggio, Davide Santon, Mattea Cassani
Rationale: I like Maggio to take the reins at right back, at least for the next two years from Gianluca Zambrotta. After that, Prandelli will have to determine if Santon can fit as a right back. Bocchetti would be the future partner to Chiellini in the center of defense. Cassani missed the final cut for this year's World Cup team.
You could also offer: Ignazio Abate. Abate has been converted to right back for AC Milan and was solid getting forward with his crossing, and is improving as a defender in that role. Marco Motta of Roma could also step into the right back role in the future.

MIDFIELDERS: Daniele De Rossi, Simone Pepe, Claudio Marchisio, Ricardo Montolivo, Antonio Nocerino, Luca Cigarini, Antonio Candreva
Rationale: I'm going to give Marchisio a pass for his performance at the World Cup because I think from a tactical perspective, it wasn't really clear what was expected of him. Often times he got in the way of his midfield teammates as a result. The central midfield players like Nocerino, De Rossi, and Cigarini can certainly function as ballwinners in the mold of Gennaro Gattuso. Antonio Candreva, if properly utilized, can operate as a playmaker in close to the striker or strikers. Prandelli's Fiorentina teams had some good use of flank play, so you have to think that Pepe will be prominant in his plans.
You could also offer: Andrea Pirlo. He'll be 33 by the time the Euros roll around and I'm sure he'll want to take one last shot. Then again, it wouldn't surprise me to see if Prandelli goes with youth.

FORWARDS: Fabio Quagliarella, Giampaolo Pazzini, Sebastian Giovinco, Alberto Gilardino, Robert Acquafresca
Rationale: I'll keep Gilardino in the team because the new Italy coach has been his club coach for the past two seasons, and Prandelli seems to have gotten the best out of him. Giovinco is the playmaker that Italy desparately missed this World Cup, and one expects that he will mature over the next couple of seasons. In the theory that Prandelli will play wider, I could see Giovinco (or Quagliarella) operating as a winger opposite Pepe with one striker. In this case Pazzini. Acquafresca has been bounced around at so many clubs over the years but he is a young talent that can be prolific once he is able to settle in somewhere.
You could also offer: Mario Balotelli. If he can keep his emotions in check and start to demonstrate some maturity, Italy will benefit. The Ghanaian born striker is loaded with talent. Antonio Cassano has had his chances in Euro 2004 and 2008 and was less than impressive. Vicenzo Iaquinta and Antonio Di Natale are too old.

That in mind, my Italy XI would be (4-3-3): Marchetti- Maggio- Bocchetti, Chiellini, Criscito, Cigarini, De Rossi, Montolivo, Giovinco, Pazzini, Pepe.

So that's my 23 for Italy for Euro 2012. We'll see what Prandelli does, but the next two years certainly need to be about transition, to set up nicely for Brazil 2014.

World Cup Shot From Distance: What each team has told us in their first game.

A quick blast of what the teams have shown us through their first game in the World Cup:

GROUP A:

• South Africa........have a nation behind them, and a work ethic and spirit that says they refuse to be the first host to go out in the first round.
• Mexico.......have an abundance of talent, but are young up front and lack composure.
• Uruguay..............have two world class strikers and will hope they do all the attacking for them.
• France.................continue to be a dysfunctional family under Raymond Domenech.

GROUP B:

• Argentina..............knows for now that Maradona hasn't screwed it up.
• Nigeria...................knows they probably could have lost about 6-0 to Argentina.
• Korea Republic...............have pace and counterattacking ability to win this group.
• Greece.........................looked like they were stuck in the mud.

GROUP C

• England....................are looking into getting 1970 Gordon Banks in a time machine to 2010.
• USA.....................got the result, now go and win the group.
• Algeria..................denying reports that Ghezzal was sent in to get sent off.
• Slovenia..................really? We lead the group?

GROUP D

• Germany........................Has scored 16 goals in their last three World Cup openers.
• Australia........................are not playing Uzbekistan, Bahrain, etc anymore.
• Ghana...........................Michael who?
• Serbia...........................needs far more from Zigic, Krasic, and Pantelic than they got.

GROUP E

• Netherlands.........................own goals and rebounds, wait till Robben is back.
• Denmark............................okay that's done, now let's get 6 points on the other two teams.
• Cameroon.........................does anybody know what they're doing out there?
• Japan..............................still happy to be here? Or can you spring a bigger upset?

GROUP F

• Italy.....................Desparate for Pirlo, and need more from the strikers.
• Paraguay.............Cardozo, Barrios, and Santa Cruz disappeared, did they go home?
• New Zealand........come on ref, our first point! Wouldn't you have taken your shirt off too?
• Slovakia...............needs to close it out.

GROUP G

• Brazil.....................what was more embarrassing, only 2 goals against North Korea or giving one up?
• North Korea.............hope we can try and do that again.
• Ivory Coast....................really? That's what we get from you?
• Portugal.........................really? That's what we get from you?

GROUP H

• Spain.........................can still win this group.
• Switzerland....................Ottmar Hitzfeld can coach. See Borussia Dortmund's Champions League win over Juventus in 1997.
• Chile...........................Alexis Sanchez may not do that against Switzerland or Spain, but he showed promise.
• Honduras.....................desparate for Suazo.

Frankly Football's World Cup Predictions: Knocking 'Em Out and Picking a Champion

Now that I have mulled over the group stages, it is time for me to pick the knockout rounds. Based on my predicted orders of finish for each group, the round of 16 is sure to feature some very intriguing matchups.

ROUND OF 16

Mexico v Greece
Mexico has done well to reach the knockout stage in each of their last 5 appearnces, however they only progressed once to the quarterfinals, when they were hosts in 1986. This would be unchartered water for the Greeks, who will be the survivor of a 2nd place battle with Nigeria and Korea Republic in Group B. Greece should be able to resist for a good portion of the match, but will finally break down to Mexico's young strikers.
Mexico 2, Greece 0

England v Germany
A match fit for a final will take place in the round of 16. England will survive the USA in group play to get to this spot, while the Germans will land here after getting upset by Serbia. The thought here is that Germany may not have a defense partnership to deal with Wayne Rooney, and should be able to exhibit superiority in midfield. Is this the game where England will finally miss Rio Ferdinand? Germany will come at the Brits with their flank play, and hope to expose Capello's left and right backs. Should be a thrilling matchup of one of world football's great rivalries.
England 2, Germany 1 (after extra time)

Serbia v United States
The Serbs finish group play as one of the surprise packets, outlasting Germany in winning group D and getting what appears to be a favorable matchup with USA. Will the American backline be sorted out in time for this one? It will have to be as friendlies with Eastern European teams like Czech Republic and Turkey weren't as convincing. Will the presence of defenders like Ivanovic, Vidic, Kolarov, and Subotic be too strong for the American strikers or will Buddle find space against them (if he plays). It's a tough matchup for the US, with Nikola Zigic having the height to win the aerial battles on the US defenders. The catalyst will be Milos Krasic, whether lined up left or right side, will cause the US outside backs a lot of problems.
Serbia 1, United States 0

Argentina v Uruguay
Attacking football should be prevelant in this one, with names such as Messi, Forlan, Tevez, Suarez, Lodeiro, and di Maria on offer. There isn't a player in Uruguay's midfield or defense that can deal with Lionel Messi, and the man who has been so brilliant for Barcelona will equal that level in this one.
Argentina 3, Uruguay 0

Netherlands v Slovakia
And the countdown to a Dutch meltdown will start now. They will boss the group stages and everyone will watch as to win this team will burnout. It won't be here. Slovakia will find just enough magic to outlast Paraguay to get to this spot, but will not have an answer for a more balanced Dutch attack.
Netherlands 2, Slovakia 0

Brazil v Switzerland
Not going to waste your time with this one. Hitzfeld had enough know how to get past Chile and Honduras to get here, but there isn't enough in the Swiss side to deal with the Selecao. Organized and rigid in defense with enough flair in attack, this will be a clinic.
Brazil 4, Switzerland 0.

Italy v Cameroon
Simple formula for the Italians: score a goal, park the bus in front of goal. Cameroon will make this interesting, but Lippi will have picked out the dangers of the Indomitable Lions (namely Samuel Eto'o). The Azzurri will have gotten their legs under them after getting tough tests from Paraguay and Slovakia, and with Cameroon hell-bent on being the first African semifinalist, Italy should survive and advance.
Italy 1, Cameroon 0.

Spain v Cote D'Ivoire
Another scintillating fixture on the round of 16 list, especially if Didier Drogba can be fit for it. The Ivorians will survive Portugal to get to this point, but whether they survive Spain could be another story. Like Holland, Spain have been long-time underachievers in this competition, more by luck than self destructing. The Ivorians will make this a street fight, not a good thing for players like Xavi, Iniesta, Torres, and David Silva, who pride themselves on having space and keeping the ball. Yet, Spain have just that much more depth than the Elephants, and it should see them through.
Spain 2, Cote D'Ivoire 1.

QUARTERFINALS

Netherlands v Brazil
Here's where it ends for the Oranje. Arjen Robben didn't score on Julio Cesar in the Champions League final, and he may not score here. The weakest part of either team will be the Dutch backline, and that's not good when you're playing Brazil. Luis Fabiano should be a handful up front, and the wing play of Robinho and Ramires will provide a lot of problems. Yet, with van der Vaart, Sneijder, van Persie, Robben, and Kuyt, there are plenty of options for Netherlands. This may be the match of the tournament like it was at USA '94. I think there is just enough organization in the Brazil defense to see it through.
Brazil 2, Netherlands 1.

Mexico v England
El Tri finally get over the hump and reach the quarterfinals again. Fabio Capello's men will outlast Germany, a necessary monkey to get off the backs of England fans everywhere. They met in a friendly where England won 3-1 using mainly fringe players, but Mexico showed a lot of promise in that match. I just think that England will be too organized and too disciplined for the Mexicans. Capello will watch that friendly for all the tendencies in his preparation, and Mexico's leaky defense will finally give in to a superior attack. I'lltake the same scoreline as the friendly, but this England will be more dominant.
England 3, Mexico 1.

Argentina v Serbia
Will there be more Messi magic, or will the Serbian defense try and chop him down the entire 90 minutes? I think the latter will happen, but the Serbs will do that at their peril, with Carlos Tevez more than happy to take on the burden in attack. When they were Serbia and Montenegro, the Argies thrashed them 6-0 in World Cup 2006. But they had a better manager, and Esteban Cambiasso. Argentina have neither, but they have Messi and Tevez, that should be enough.
Argentina 2, Serbia 1.

Italy v Spain
No one gave the Italians a chance when these two met in Euro 2008, and the match went to penalties, thanks to the Italian philosophy of parking the bus in front of goal as discussed with how they will get by Cameroon. 2 years later, and the Italians are that much older and slower, and Torres and David Villa are in their prime. This is a rock solid Spain defense, and the European Champions will learn from their errors in the 2009 Confed Cup.
Spain 1, Italy 0

SEMIFINALS

England v Brazil
If only Capello had Gordon Banks in his prime. Finally, England will run into some wingers that they will struggle to deal with. Additionally, Brazil's center-halves should be successful in keeping Rooney in their back pocket. This will be a chess match for 90 minutes and then to extra time. Neither team will get more than a goal, and it will go to penalties. Heartbreak for England again, as in 1990, with Brazil boasting the better goalkeeper for the occasion.
England 1, Brazil 1 (Brazil advance on PKs)

Argentina v Spain
How did Inter silence Lionel Messi? He was defended by Argentinians like Cambiasso and Zanetti. How will Spain keep him quiet? His teammates Pique and Puyol will have the answer. Additionally, this is where the Argentine defense will crumble after exceeding expectations to get to this point. This will rival the Holland-Brazil quarterfinal as match of the tournament. I'm calling for Spain's experience and depth to outlast Maradona's men.
Spain 3, Argentina 2.

THIRD PLACE: England v Argentina
England looks forward to payback for 1986, and 1998 (yes they got a little in 2002 but that was in the group stage). Argentina will arrive at this match to put on a show, after being disappointed in not facing their bitter rival Brazil in the final. England's backline will have issues with Lionel Messi, and he'll be in line for the Golden Boot with his performance in this match.
Argentina 3, England 2.

FINAL: Brazil v Spain
After all that thinking and re-thinking, I went chalk for the final. The top two teams in FIFA's World rankings seem to be the most organized, and seem to also have the right combination of attacking players to get this far. If suspensions can be avoided, this will be the most entertaining final since 1986 when Argentina outlasted West Germany in the altitude of Mexico.

Brazil will line up with two holding midfielders, and might do this all tournament, to combat the tippy-tappy passing of the Spaniards. Look for Felipe Melo and Gilberto Silva to trade off limiting Xavi's space and time with the ball. Spain coach Vicente del Bosque will likely play Fernando Torres and David Villa in attack from the start, in hopes of pulling apart Brazil's center backs (likely Lucio and Juan) and trying to pin Maicon back from venturing forward. In attack for Brazil, look for them to go with just Luis Fabiano up front, with Robinho and Ramires occupying the flanks. This will give Kaka free reign in midfield and be the link between the holding mids and the rest of the attack. Spain's toughest call will be to decide if they want to counter with Xabi Alonso AND Sergio Busquets in midfield, or to leave Alonso and employ Iniesta and David Silva wide. I expcet the latter as they will want to pull apart Brazil's back line from the start. If they are successful and lead into the second half, you'll see Sergio be the first one off the bench to bring off one of Spain's more attack minded players. If Brazil score first, enter Josue or Kleberson to bring off Ramires, and pair Robinho in attack with Luis Fabiano, Kaka still linking the lines.

What will happen? Lots of chances in the run of play, but I think it will come down to an odd goal or a set piece. In that case, I think Brazil's chances are better. Lucio will be the unlikely hero, heading home a corner, and leading the Brazil rearguard to keep the Spaniards quiet. The Selecao showed last year at the Confed Cup that they were built to win this World Cup, and they will see it through for a sixth time.

BRAZIL 1, SPAIN 0.

As an Italian-American, I hope I am wrong. The World Cup is capable of some crazy things, and I'm sure there will be more twists in the plot than I have outlined here. Nonetheless, it should be a thrilling month ahead.

Frankly Football's World Cup Predictions: Groups E-H

Thank you to Kirk for pointing out in my previous blog that Ghana is known as the Black Stars and not the Super Eagles. My source who told me they are the Super Eagles has been sacked. So with A-D digested yesterday, here's a look at Groups E through H

GROUP E
Prediction for Order of Finish:

1. Netherlands
2. Cameroon
3. Denmark
4. Japan

Rationale: Arjen Robben or not, the Dutch are loaded and always seem to storm out during group play. There are still plenty of talented pieces such as Wesley Sneijder, Rafael van der Vaart, Dirk Kuyt, and Robin van Persie to go around. The challenge for them is can they maintain a high level of football for an entire month? In 2008, they bossed their way through a Euro group of Italy, France and Romania before getting bounced out by Russia in the quarterfinals. While Denmark was impressive in outlasting Sweden and Portugal in qualifying directly, they have injury issues with Simon Kjaer and Nicklas Bendnter. I'll go with Cameroon's experienced squad over the Danes for the runner up spot, spearheaded by Samuel Eto'o and guarded by underrated goalkeeper Idriss Kameni. I've already dropped a hint about the state of Asian football in the last blog, in reference to Australia's easy qualifying, and Japan was one of those teams. They have experience in Shunsuke Nakamura and Junichi Inamoto, and a rising star in Keisuke Honda, but the team is just not deep enough to hang with the other three teams here.

GROUP F
Prediction for Order of Finish:

1. Italy
2. Slovakia
3. Paraguay
4. New Zealand

Despite their struggles in the World Cup warmups and with Andrea Pirlo's injury, Italy should have enough to top this group. The key will be if the aging legs of players like Buffon, Cannavaro, Zambrotta, Di Natale, and Gattuso can hold up. The big match will be the Slovakia-Paraguay game, and this is where Marek Hamsik of Slovakia has a chance to get a big paycheck. Paraguay has an abundance of talent in attack with Oscar Cardozo and Roque Santa Cruz, but not a lot of proven players in defense. Again, the organized Eastern European team wins out. New Zealand gave the Italians a tough match last year in a 4-3 defeat, so don't necessarily count them out.

GROUP G
Prediction for Order of Finish

1. Brazil
2. Cote D'Ivoire
3. Portugal
4. North Korea

Rationale: Get ready for a tactically disciplined Brazil, who will keep it tight against their Group G rivals and obviously with their attacking flair, will be able to still create a ton of chances. They have the best goalkeeper in the world, Julio Cesar (who I think you could argue to be in the World Player of the Year race). They have the two best right backs in the world (Maicon and Daniel Alves) and the headache is which one to start. And of course, they have skill all over the park when you talk about Kaka, Elano, Robinho, Luis Fabiano, Michel Bastos, and Grafite. Even with Didier Drogba's injury, I tip the Ivorians to grab the 2nd spot. It will come down to the all important match on June 15th with Portugal. Like I can't trust France under Domenech, I don't trust Portugal under Carlos Queiroz. They barely qualified and almost missed the playoff to Sweden. They might bost the talent in Cristiano Ronaldo, Deco, and Ricardo Carvalho, but I'm not convinced they are disciplined enough. North Korea did a fantastic job to get here, but it will be an achievement if they get a point out of this group.

GROUP H
Prediction for Order of Finish:

1. Spain
2. Switzerland
3. Chile
4. Honduras

Rationale: Will Spain be able to finally lift a World Cup, or will they once again be jinxed? Judging from their 6-0 friendly win over Poland, it doesn't seem there is any tiredness to speak of, for now. Additionally, the draw gods smiled on them with this group. In 26 previous outings combined against their group rivals, the Spaniards have an astonishing 21 wins, 5 draws and 0 defeats, outsocring their foes 64-19 in that run. The 2010 editions of Switzerland, Chile, and Honduras doesn't look to measure up either. I like Switzerland to outlast Chile and Honduras because of the experience of the team itself (Philippe Senderos, Valon Behrami, Gokhan Inler, and Alexander Frei) as well as with their manager (Ottmar Hitzfeld is a Champions League winner with Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund at club level).

So my first knockout round looks like this based on my predictions:

• Mexico v Greece
• Argentina v Uruguay
• England v Germany
• Serbia v USA
• Netherlands v Slovakia
• Italy v Cameroon
• Brazil v Switzerland
• Spain v Cote D'Ivoire

Tomorrow, I'll pick the rest of the tournament and give who I think will win the World Cup.