Now that I have mulled over the group stages, it is time for me to pick the knockout rounds. Based on my predicted orders of finish for each group, the round of 16 is sure to feature some very intriguing matchups.
ROUND OF 16
Mexico v Greece
Mexico has done well to reach the knockout stage in each of their last 5 appearnces, however they only progressed once to the quarterfinals, when they were hosts in 1986. This would be unchartered water for the Greeks, who will be the survivor of a 2nd place battle with Nigeria and Korea Republic in Group B. Greece should be able to resist for a good portion of the match, but will finally break down to Mexico's young strikers.
Mexico 2, Greece 0
England v Germany
A match fit for a final will take place in the round of 16. England will survive the USA in group play to get to this spot, while the Germans will land here after getting upset by Serbia. The thought here is that Germany may not have a defense partnership to deal with Wayne Rooney, and should be able to exhibit superiority in midfield. Is this the game where England will finally miss Rio Ferdinand? Germany will come at the Brits with their flank play, and hope to expose Capello's left and right backs. Should be a thrilling matchup of one of world football's great rivalries.
England 2, Germany 1 (after extra time)
Serbia v United States
The Serbs finish group play as one of the surprise packets, outlasting Germany in winning group D and getting what appears to be a favorable matchup with USA. Will the American backline be sorted out in time for this one? It will have to be as friendlies with Eastern European teams like Czech Republic and Turkey weren't as convincing. Will the presence of defenders like Ivanovic, Vidic, Kolarov, and Subotic be too strong for the American strikers or will Buddle find space against them (if he plays). It's a tough matchup for the US, with Nikola Zigic having the height to win the aerial battles on the US defenders. The catalyst will be Milos Krasic, whether lined up left or right side, will cause the US outside backs a lot of problems.
Serbia 1, United States 0
Argentina v Uruguay
Attacking football should be prevelant in this one, with names such as Messi, Forlan, Tevez, Suarez, Lodeiro, and di Maria on offer. There isn't a player in Uruguay's midfield or defense that can deal with Lionel Messi, and the man who has been so brilliant for Barcelona will equal that level in this one.
Argentina 3, Uruguay 0
Netherlands v Slovakia
And the countdown to a Dutch meltdown will start now. They will boss the group stages and everyone will watch as to win this team will burnout. It won't be here. Slovakia will find just enough magic to outlast Paraguay to get to this spot, but will not have an answer for a more balanced Dutch attack.
Netherlands 2, Slovakia 0
Brazil v Switzerland
Not going to waste your time with this one. Hitzfeld had enough know how to get past Chile and Honduras to get here, but there isn't enough in the Swiss side to deal with the Selecao. Organized and rigid in defense with enough flair in attack, this will be a clinic.
Brazil 4, Switzerland 0.
Italy v Cameroon
Simple formula for the Italians: score a goal, park the bus in front of goal. Cameroon will make this interesting, but Lippi will have picked out the dangers of the Indomitable Lions (namely Samuel Eto'o). The Azzurri will have gotten their legs under them after getting tough tests from Paraguay and Slovakia, and with Cameroon hell-bent on being the first African semifinalist, Italy should survive and advance.
Italy 1, Cameroon 0.
Spain v Cote D'Ivoire
Another scintillating fixture on the round of 16 list, especially if Didier Drogba can be fit for it. The Ivorians will survive Portugal to get to this point, but whether they survive Spain could be another story. Like Holland, Spain have been long-time underachievers in this competition, more by luck than self destructing. The Ivorians will make this a street fight, not a good thing for players like Xavi, Iniesta, Torres, and David Silva, who pride themselves on having space and keeping the ball. Yet, Spain have just that much more depth than the Elephants, and it should see them through.
Spain 2, Cote D'Ivoire 1.
QUARTERFINALS
Netherlands v Brazil
Here's where it ends for the Oranje. Arjen Robben didn't score on Julio Cesar in the Champions League final, and he may not score here. The weakest part of either team will be the Dutch backline, and that's not good when you're playing Brazil. Luis Fabiano should be a handful up front, and the wing play of Robinho and Ramires will provide a lot of problems. Yet, with van der Vaart, Sneijder, van Persie, Robben, and Kuyt, there are plenty of options for Netherlands. This may be the match of the tournament like it was at USA '94. I think there is just enough organization in the Brazil defense to see it through.
Brazil 2, Netherlands 1.
Mexico v England
El Tri finally get over the hump and reach the quarterfinals again. Fabio Capello's men will outlast Germany, a necessary monkey to get off the backs of England fans everywhere. They met in a friendly where England won 3-1 using mainly fringe players, but Mexico showed a lot of promise in that match. I just think that England will be too organized and too disciplined for the Mexicans. Capello will watch that friendly for all the tendencies in his preparation, and Mexico's leaky defense will finally give in to a superior attack. I'lltake the same scoreline as the friendly, but this England will be more dominant.
England 3, Mexico 1.
Argentina v Serbia
Will there be more Messi magic, or will the Serbian defense try and chop him down the entire 90 minutes? I think the latter will happen, but the Serbs will do that at their peril, with Carlos Tevez more than happy to take on the burden in attack. When they were Serbia and Montenegro, the Argies thrashed them 6-0 in World Cup 2006. But they had a better manager, and Esteban Cambiasso. Argentina have neither, but they have Messi and Tevez, that should be enough.
Argentina 2, Serbia 1.
Italy v Spain
No one gave the Italians a chance when these two met in Euro 2008, and the match went to penalties, thanks to the Italian philosophy of parking the bus in front of goal as discussed with how they will get by Cameroon. 2 years later, and the Italians are that much older and slower, and Torres and David Villa are in their prime. This is a rock solid Spain defense, and the European Champions will learn from their errors in the 2009 Confed Cup.
Spain 1, Italy 0
SEMIFINALS
England v Brazil
If only Capello had Gordon Banks in his prime. Finally, England will run into some wingers that they will struggle to deal with. Additionally, Brazil's center-halves should be successful in keeping Rooney in their back pocket. This will be a chess match for 90 minutes and then to extra time. Neither team will get more than a goal, and it will go to penalties. Heartbreak for England again, as in 1990, with Brazil boasting the better goalkeeper for the occasion.
England 1, Brazil 1 (Brazil advance on PKs)
Argentina v Spain
How did Inter silence Lionel Messi? He was defended by Argentinians like Cambiasso and Zanetti. How will Spain keep him quiet? His teammates Pique and Puyol will have the answer. Additionally, this is where the Argentine defense will crumble after exceeding expectations to get to this point. This will rival the Holland-Brazil quarterfinal as match of the tournament. I'm calling for Spain's experience and depth to outlast Maradona's men.
Spain 3, Argentina 2.
THIRD PLACE: England v Argentina
England looks forward to payback for 1986, and 1998 (yes they got a little in 2002 but that was in the group stage). Argentina will arrive at this match to put on a show, after being disappointed in not facing their bitter rival Brazil in the final. England's backline will have issues with Lionel Messi, and he'll be in line for the Golden Boot with his performance in this match.
Argentina 3, England 2.
FINAL: Brazil v Spain
After all that thinking and re-thinking, I went chalk for the final. The top two teams in FIFA's World rankings seem to be the most organized, and seem to also have the right combination of attacking players to get this far. If suspensions can be avoided, this will be the most entertaining final since 1986 when Argentina outlasted West Germany in the altitude of Mexico.
Brazil will line up with two holding midfielders, and might do this all tournament, to combat the tippy-tappy passing of the Spaniards. Look for Felipe Melo and Gilberto Silva to trade off limiting Xavi's space and time with the ball. Spain coach Vicente del Bosque will likely play Fernando Torres and David Villa in attack from the start, in hopes of pulling apart Brazil's center backs (likely Lucio and Juan) and trying to pin Maicon back from venturing forward. In attack for Brazil, look for them to go with just Luis Fabiano up front, with Robinho and Ramires occupying the flanks. This will give Kaka free reign in midfield and be the link between the holding mids and the rest of the attack. Spain's toughest call will be to decide if they want to counter with Xabi Alonso AND Sergio Busquets in midfield, or to leave Alonso and employ Iniesta and David Silva wide. I expcet the latter as they will want to pull apart Brazil's back line from the start. If they are successful and lead into the second half, you'll see Sergio be the first one off the bench to bring off one of Spain's more attack minded players. If Brazil score first, enter Josue or Kleberson to bring off Ramires, and pair Robinho in attack with Luis Fabiano, Kaka still linking the lines.
What will happen? Lots of chances in the run of play, but I think it will come down to an odd goal or a set piece. In that case, I think Brazil's chances are better. Lucio will be the unlikely hero, heading home a corner, and leading the Brazil rearguard to keep the Spaniards quiet. The Selecao showed last year at the Confed Cup that they were built to win this World Cup, and they will see it through for a sixth time.
BRAZIL 1, SPAIN 0.
As an Italian-American, I hope I am wrong. The World Cup is capable of some crazy things, and I'm sure there will be more twists in the plot than I have outlined here. Nonetheless, it should be a thrilling month ahead.
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