Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Frankly Football's World Cup Predictions: Groups E-H

Thank you to Kirk for pointing out in my previous blog that Ghana is known as the Black Stars and not the Super Eagles. My source who told me they are the Super Eagles has been sacked. So with A-D digested yesterday, here's a look at Groups E through H

GROUP E
Prediction for Order of Finish:
  1. Netherlands
  2. Cameroon
  3. Denmark
  4. Japan

Rationale: Arjen Robben or not, the Dutch are loaded and always seem to storm out during group play. There are still plenty of talented pieces such as Wesley Sneijder, Rafael van der Vaart, Dirk Kuyt, and Robin van Persie to go around. The challenge for them is can they maintain a high level of football for an entire month? In 2008, they bossed their way through a Euro group of Italy, France and Romania before getting bounced out by Russia in the quarterfinals. While Denmark was impressive in outlasting Sweden and Portugal in qualifying directly, they have injury issues with Simon Kjaer and Nicklas Bendnter. I'll go with Cameroon's experienced squad over the Danes for the runner up spot, spearheaded by Samuel Eto'o and guarded by underrated goalkeeper Idriss Kameni. I've already dropped a hint about the state of Asian football in the last blog, in reference to Australia's easy qualifying, and Japan was one of those teams. They have experience in Shunsuke Nakamura and Junichi Inamoto, and a rising star in Keisuke Honda, but the team is just not deep enough to hang with the other three teams here.

GROUP F
Prediction for Order of Finish:

  1. Italy
  2. Slovakia
  3. Paraguay
  4. New Zealand

Despite their struggles in the World Cup warmups and with Andrea Pirlo's injury, Italy should have enough to top this group. The key will be if the aging legs of players like Buffon, Cannavaro, Zambrotta, Di Natale, and Gattuso can hold up. The big match will be the Slovakia-Paraguay game, and this is where Marek Hamsik of Slovakia has a chance to get a big paycheck. Paraguay has an abundance of talent in attack with Oscar Cardozo and Roque Santa Cruz, but not a lot of proven players in defense. Again, the organized Eastern European team wins out. New Zealand gave the Italians a tough match last year in a 4-3 defeat, so don't necessarily count them out.

GROUP G
Prediction for Order of Finish

  1. Brazil
  2. Cote D'Ivoire
  3. Portugal
  4. North Korea

Rationale: Get ready for a tactically disciplined Brazil, who will keep it tight against their Group G rivals and obviously with their attacking flair, will be able to still create a ton of chances. They have the best goalkeeper in the world, Julio Cesar (who I think you could argue to be in the World Player of the Year race). They have the two best right backs in the world (Maicon and Daniel Alves) and the headache is which one to start. And of course, they have skill all over the park when you talk about Kaka, Elano, Robinho, Luis Fabiano, Michel Bastos, and Grafite. Even with Didier Drogba's injury, I tip the Ivorians to grab the 2nd spot. It will come down to the all important match on June 15th with Portugal. Like I can't trust France under Domenech, I don't trust Portugal under Carlos Queiroz. They barely qualified and almost missed the playoff to Sweden. They might bost the talent in Cristiano Ronaldo, Deco, and Ricardo Carvalho, but I'm not convinced they are disciplined enough. North Korea did a fantastic job to get here, but it will be an achievement if they get a point out of this group.

GROUP H
Prediction for Order of Finish:

  1. Spain
  2. Switzerland
  3. Chile
  4. Honduras

Rationale: Will Spain be able to finally lift a World Cup, or will they once again be jinxed? Judging from their 6-0 friendly win over Poland, it doesn't seem there is any tiredness to speak of, for now. Additionally, the draw gods smiled on them with this group. In 26 previous outings combined against their group rivals, the Spaniards have an astonishing 21 wins, 5 draws and 0 defeats, outsocring their foes 64-19 in that run. The 2010 editions of Switzerland, Chile, and Honduras doesn't look to measure up either. I like Switzerland to outlast Chile and Honduras because of the experience of the team itself (Philippe Senderos, Valon Behrami, Gokhan Inler, and Alexander Frei) as well as with their manager (Ottmar Hitzfeld is a Champions League winner with Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund at club level).

So my first knockout round looks like this based on my predictions:

  • Mexico v Greece
  • Argentina v Uruguay
  • England v Germany
  • Serbia v USA
  • Netherlands v Slovakia
  • Italy v Cameroon
  • Brazil v Switzerland
  • Spain v Cote D'Ivoire

Tomorrow, I'll pick the rest of the tournament and give who I think will win the World Cup.

1 comment:

  1. Good stuff Frank.

    I found it interesting that you let the generality of organized Euros playing well in groups outweigh the generality that northern hemisphere teams traditionally do very poor in group stages in southern hemisphere cups.

    Coupled with the altitude concerns, and I think you've underestimated the South American teams like Chile and Paraguay. I like the pick of Uruguay though!

    P.S. I like Serbia too but I have Mexico as my dark horse. Serbia's friendlies leading up have shown that they are not communicating well... that worries me.

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