Table Analysis: German Bundesliga

Yesterday it was looking at how Serie A might finish, today the emphasis is on Germany. Like Italy, there are 3 contenders. Each have 6 matches remaining. Let's have a look at the contenders and their remaining fixtures:

CURRENT TABLE

1. Schalke 04: 58 points
2. Bayern Munich: 56 points
3. Bayer Leverkusen: 53 points

Schalke 04
Remaining Fixtures: Bayern Munich (H), Hannover 96 (A), Borussia M'Bach (H), Hertha Berlin (A), Werder Bremen (H), Mainz (A)
OUTLOOK: The obvious emphasis here is going to be on this Saturday's showdown with Bayern. Beyond that, though, it is a very manageable schedule. The toughest fixture after Saturday is Werder Bremen, and that's in Gelsenkirchen. Two of their three away fixtures are against teams in the drop, Hannover and Hertha Berlin, while away to Mainz will be tricky as they currently boast the 5th best home record. With Schalke having the best away record in the Bundesliga, my guess is they will get all 9 points from their fixtures away from Gelsenkirchen. So it will come down to the home dates with Bayern Munich and Werder Bremen. Win this Saturday against the Bavarians, and they'll open a 5 point gap and have one hand on the title. Two other things are going for them at the moment. 1) the best defensive record in the league conceding only 22 goals and 2) Felix Magath, who as I've said in blogs past knows how to win in Germany.
WHAT'S REASONABLE TO EXPECT: I can see them splitting points at home with Bayern and being satisfied with that, but I can't see them beating Werder who are running really strong at the moment and have the 2nd best away record (not to mention Bremen might fancy still sneaking into that 3rd spot). The other 4 matches should be wins though against 2 relegation strugglers and 2 sides who won't have much to play for. 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat. 13 points to finish the season on 71 points.

Bayern Munich
Remaining Fixtures: Schalke 04 (A), Bayer Leverkusen (A), Hannover 96 (H), Borussia M'Bach (A), VFL Bochum (H), Hertha Berlin (A).
OUTLOOK: We're going to know just how good a manager Louis van Gaal is these days and how much resolve Bayern has in what will be the two biggest weeks of the season. They need to find a way to take points from their fellow Bundesliga contenders in away fixtures, as well as negotiate their way to the Champions League semifinals. An unenviable position for anyone to be in. After that it's nice and squishy for them as the highest position for the remaining opponents is 12th, an away fixture with Monchengladbach. It's going to be imperative for them to at least split points with Schalke 04 this Saturday, and I already think that's going to end in a draw. After that, they should win out. Leverkusen is still in this, but the wheels have fallen off their wagon only taking 9 points from their last 8 matches and conceding 14 goals in that process. Mario Gomez is getting healthy for the stretch run, and Arjen Robben ought to feature again. Based on things coming together, I really can't see Bayen losing another match.
WHAT'S REASONABLE TO EXPECT: I think they'll be disappointed to draw this Saturday but the remaining 5 matches are all very winnable fixtures for one reason or another. 5 and a draw is very likely here. 5 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses. 16 points to finish on 72 points.

Bayer Leverkusen
Remaining Fixtures: Eintracht Frankfurt (A), Bayern Munich (H), VFB Stuttgart (A), Hannover 96 (H), Hertha Berlin (H), Borussia M'Bach (A).
OUTLOOK: Seeing that I think Bayern will finish on 72, the most Bayer Leverkusen can get is 68 points (I have them losing to Bayern so they won't finish on 71). Even at that, I think reaching that number is out of the question. Eintracht Frankfurt has been solid this season and will be a tricky away fixture. Stuttgart has had a revival under Christian Gross and have 16 points from their last 8 matches (3rd best of any team in that span). They are only 5 back with 6 games remaining and anything can happen, but realistically this will be a tough task on their current form.
WHAT'S REASONABLE TO EXPECT: Like evaluating Milan yesterday, Leverkusen's priority should be on consolidating the 3rd and final Champions League place. They have Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen both closing very strong right now and 4 and 5 points behind Leverkusen, respectively. I can see them drawing this weekend with Eintracht, but I can't see them getting anything from Bayern or Stuttgart with the way they are playing, and more worryingly, conceding goals. 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 defeats. 10 points to finish on 63 points.

Interesting that Borussia M'Bach, Hannover, and Hertha all get to play a role in this. In Hannover and Hertha's case, it won't help them in their fight to avoid relegation to have to play the top three. As you can see, I like Bayern to overtake Schalke and win this year's Bundesliga by the slimmest of margins. Meanwhile, the 63 for Leverkusen may not be enough for 3rd depending on what Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen do. Should be a fun few weeks to finish the season.

Table Analysis: Serie A

Three teams, with 3 points separating 3rd from 1st. 7 matches remaining for each team. Time to look at the remaining fixtures for the title contenders and figure out who will come out on top.

CURRENT TABLE

1. Inter Milan: 63 points.
2. AS Roma: 61 points.
3. AC Milan: 60 points.

Inter
Reamining Fixtures: Bologna (H), Fiorentina (A), Juventus (H), Atalanta (H), Lazio (A), Chievo (H), Siena (A)
OUTLOOK: Inter appear to have the most favorable fixture list of all the contenders. The toughest match is Fiorentina away, but they get Juventus home. The other 5 teams are sitting 13th or lower with 2 of the teams (Atalanta and Siena) currently in the drop. The issues with this team are 1. Discipline, 2. The Champions League distraction and 3. Jose Mourinho's constant flirtation with returning to England. Inter are a team whose players seem to get suspended for rather silly reasons, not to mention the next touchline ban for Mourinho whenever it happens. In addition, they'll fancy their chances as a team who can make life difficult for Arsenal or Barcelona, that is of course if they survive CSKA Moscow in the Champions League. Finally, at what point does Mourinho's desire to return to England or try and capture La Liga in Spain finally become a distraction in the Nerazzurri dressing room.
WHAT'S REASONABLE TO EXPECT: I think Inter's remaining defeat in league will be at Fiorentina, while they'll likely split points with Juventus. Beyond that, I can't imagine they'll drop points to the other five teams on the schedule. 5 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat for 16 points to finish out the season on 79 points.

AS Roma
Remaining Fixtures: Bari (A), Atalanta (H), Lazio (A- Derby), Sampdoria (H), Parma (A), Cagliari (H), Chievo (A).
OUTLOOK: This isn't a bad list for a team that has made an unlikely surge, and is looking to continue to put the pressure on the 4-time defending champions. They start with a Bari side that has been sneaky good at the San Nicola, and unbeaten in their last 5. 3 points is a requirement in that one. The home list is rather comfortable as Sampdoria looks like the toughest match, and they have been uninspiring away and against top half competition. You would think Cagliari would be a tough task, but the wheels have fallen off lately. Parma away is brutal as well, as they have taken points from both Inter and Milan there. It's been an impressive run for the Giallorossi, currently on a 21 match unbeaten run to get to this point. Luca Toni has been a revelation for them, and Daniele De Rossi is playing as well as anyone in Italy at this point, just in time for the World Cup. Hard to imagine they are often doing this without Francesco Totti, but they've come together quite impressively.
WHAT'S REASONABLE TO EXPECT: If I have Inter finishing on 79 points, then Roma must finish on 19 to overtake them or 18 and hope for a better goal difference. That their due for a defeat somewhere and manager Claudio Ranieri's track record for being a bridesmaid (2nd place finishes with Juventus and Chelsea in recent years) prevent me from believing this can happen. I think the fixture list has enough landmines, Parma in particular, to prevent them from overhauling the champions. I see a defeat at Parma, and draws with Bari and Lazio. 4 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat. 13 points to finish the season on 74 points.

AC Milan
Remaining Fixtures: Cagliari (A), Catania (H), Sampdoria (A), Palermo (A), Fiorentina (H), Genoa (A), Juventus (H).
OUTLOOK: If the Rossoneri were hoping to make a strong push to end the season, the scheduling gods didn't do them any favors. The lowest positioned opponent left is Catania (14th), and that's a home match. Five of their opponents are all going to be spending the rest of the season jockeying for position in European places with one Champions League place available and the likelihood that one or two of those teams could be left out of Europe altogether. Cagliari might be dipping, but on 40 points they are not far off of a place either. Palermo and Genoa are as rough as it gets for away fixtures as they are currently 2nd and 4th, respectively, on their home ground (Palermo have yet to lose at home). Sampdoria is another side that have yet to lose on their ground as well. Yet, if they can recover Pato and if Ronaldinho can stay healthy, Milan are a side that can score on anyone as their remaining opponents do combine for a healthy 1.33 goals against average.
WHAT'S REASONABLE TO EXPECT: To be correct in determining any chance Milan had of winning the Scudetto was lost in their last three matches; an away defeat to Parma sandwiched by home draws with Napoli and Lazio. Considering the laundry list of injuries (especially in defense), and a daunting fixture list, consolidating 3rd should be Milan's focus for the remainder of the season. I can't see them winning at Sampdoria or Palermo, and they should split points with Juventus and Genoa. 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats. 11 points for a total of 71 points.

CONCLUSION: Pretty much going to be as you were with a little bit of separation down the stretch. Inter should clinch this on the 36th or 37th round. At the moment it is up for grabs, but Inter has by far the most favorable schedule of any of the teams left.

Shots from Distance 3.22.2010: Observations from the weekend in World Football.

Another weekend of football has passed and, as always, there are some interesting talking points.

1. Sir Alex Ferguson continues to maximize his resources.
An eagerly awaited contest between Manchester United and Liverpool was on this cards this past weekend, and in a 2-1 victory, Sir once again demonstrated tactical mastery.

He used Park Ji-Sung as a striker with Wayne Rooney. Or at least it appeared that way.

It looked somewhat as more of a support striker, with Nani and Antonio Valencia occupying the flanks. Park has flourished in many important matches in a wider role, but this time he was asked to play in a central attacking position, with the purpose of pulling the Liverpool defense apart and taking the pressure off of Wayne Rooney. This was an experiment that looked like it wasn't going to work. In fact, a friend of mine and I were discussing (through Facebook comments) that Berbatov should come on to provide the target play and let Rooney run loose. Well, again, ol' Fergie knows what the rest of us don't, and his decision to keep his faith in Park led to the Korean scoring the go-ahead goal on the hour, finding room in the penalty area to head home. Park would come off after 86 minutes, but for Scholes so the three points would be preserved.

2. As for Liverpool..........
Get used to life in the Europa league, if your mission is to go and just keep United from playing, you already lost. Sitting in 6th with just 7 games remaining, and the teams around you have at least 1 match in hand (City and Villa have 2), doesn't bode well. Either clean house or get a viable striker to pair with Torres.

3. The latest cry for goal line technology.
Either Rafael van der Vaart was doing his best Thierry Henry impression, was caught up in March Madness (which I'm sure he's never heard of), or both. He clearly handled the ball in the penalty area to set up the equalizer for Real Madrid in their come from behind victory over Sporting Gijon 3-1. Yes, Real dominated the match but they were behind. The tying goal from van der Vaart came in the 2nd half, and clearly it got to the psychee of the Sporting side who would have worked toward trying to preserve the 1-0 or at least settle for a draw at the Bernabeu. As a result, Real Madrid are top of La Liga instead of being 2 or 3 points behind Barcelona at this stage. If they win the league, look back on this moment.

4. Massimo Oddo? Really?
As a Milan fan, I'm disgusted. They entered their match with Napoli yesterday with a chance to go top of Serie A, thanks to Inter's draw at Palermo on Saturday. I see the team news, and Oddo gets a start. I support the Rossoneri through and through, but when I saw "44-Oddo" lined up on the right, I had a feeling that we wouldn't win. Sure enough in the first 15 minutes, Oddo leaves the whole city of Naples onside, then tries to go in and defend the cross across the penalty area. Collides with the goalkeeper Abbiati in the process, and leaves an empty net for Napoli to score. I know Milan is getting paper thin due to injuries, but that's no excuse to have a player on the pitch who is clearly past it. Especially when late in the match, Leonardo brought on Luca Antonini to play left back, and move Zambrotta to the right to bring Oddo off. Too little, too late. If you are going to rush Pato back into the team, then Antonini should be out there from the beginning as well. It ends 1-1, and Milan still sit 1 point behind Inter, each with 9 matches to play. I'll look at this game with disgust if the season ends as the teams are positioned now.

5. Chelsea. R.I.P.
I might be very harsh on them, but it seems like Jose Mourinho returned home and sucked the life out of this team. I didn't see the Blackburn match, but if Chelsea want to win the Premier League, 1-1 at Ewood doesn't do it. Further, 1 goal on a back up goalkeeper who only saw his first Premier League action for Blackburn last week, doesn't do it. I think we saw the wheels fall off when Samuel Eto'o scored that memorable goal at midweek.

6. Remember me? I was World Player of the Year in 2009.
Much of the attention has been on Wayne Rooney and how he has practically carried Manchester United this season. To the point where everyone is already anointing him 2010's World Player of the Year. May I introduce to you Mr. Lionel Messi. A little guy who plays for Barcelona and led them to the 2009 Champions League. Since 2010 started, Messi has scored 18 goals. That is ahead of his mark of 10 at this time last year and ahead of Rooney's 16 this year (again from Jan 1, 2010). Okay, Rooney has less to work with. I'll further argue. Messi has been without the services of Xavi, and 10 of those 18 goals have come in the last 16 days (4 games; 2 hat-tricks and 2 braces). With the Champions League Draw set up for a Barcelona- Man United rematch, it could come down to the winner of that getting the World POY for 2010. Of course there's also a small matter of who will excel in the World Cup too.

6 shots from distance. That's a lot for a 35-year old so I'm off to go ice my quad, hamsting, and calf. Unitl my next rant...........

Breaking Down the UEFA Champions League Quarterfinal Draw

Hey gang, it's been awhile since I've rapped at ya, taking a line from world-renowned Onion columnsit Jim Anchower, but I'm back and refereshed. I thought I would start by breaking down the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League.

Olympique Lyonnais (FRA) v FC Girondins de Bordeaux (FRA)
Outlook: From the quarterfinals onward, teams from the same nation are not protected. While French Football may or may not be happy that their two remaining sides are drawn together, they at least get a team into the semifinals.

Lyon are conquerers of wallet-burning Real Madrid. I have broken down eloquently to friends that Real Madrid spent over 200 million on Kaka, Ronaldo, Benzema, Raul Albiol, Granero, Xabi Alonso, and about the first three rows of the fans who sit in the Santiago Bernabeu. Lyon spent 40 million or so on Lisandro Lopez, Batefimbi Gomis, Michel Bastos, and Aly Cissokho. Just a study in economics and rock solid evidence that less is indeed more. Additionally, Lyon have wins in this competition over Liverpool and Fiorentina in the group stage, so you know they are battle tested.

Bordeaux also have high profile scalps to their credit in the form of Bayern Munich and Juventus. They had a bit of an easier path from the round of 16 to the quarters in the form of Olympiakos, and did enough to get through.

This may be the least appealing to the casual American fan, who is not as exposed to French football as they are to the other marquee names in this field, but could end up being the most fun. Lyon and Bordeaux are rivals year in and year out for the French Ligue 1 title (Bordeaux last season ended Lyon's 7-year run as champion), and feature a lot of attacking talent. For Lyon, they have Lopez, Gomis, Bastos, and Sidney Govou. Additionally, they have a solid goalkeeper in Hugo Lloris who may become France's #1 if he hasn't won the job yet. Bordeaux boast talent in attack as well with Maourane Chamakh (an Arsenal target this summer) as well as Yoann Gourcuff (who many feel is the next Zidane).

Of the cuff knee-jerk prediction: I give the slight edge to Lyon. While I think Gourcuff will shine over the two matches, I think there is enough organization in Lyon to get through this tie. Particularly, I like the goalkeeping of Lloris over Carrasso in this one.

FC Bayern Munchen (GER) v Manchester United FC (ENG)
Outlook: I joked with some people when this one came out, saying that the groundskeepers at Allianz Arena and Old Trafford won't have to spend a lot of time patching the middle of the pitch after each match. This will be won and lost on the flanks. Both teams boast world class players, and both teams have managers who have won this competition. Sir Alex Ferguson twice (1999 and 2008), and Louis van Gaal (with Ajax in 1995). Van Gaal gets a reunion with United's Van Der Sar, who was Ajax's goalkeeper in that '95 triumph.

Bayern are here on the strength of a wonder goal from Arjen Robben to send the Germans through on away goals over Fiorentina (though the Tuscans will tell you the offside goal by Klose in the first leg made the difference). In their setup, they have two of the world's best wingers in Arjen Robben and Frank Ribery. They'll be sweating over the fitness of Mario Gomez though, who has helped provide the goals, but can look to other players like Miroslav Klose and Ivica Olic. If there is an Achilles heel in this side, it's their backline. Phillip Lahm is a solid outside back, but Badstuber and Van Buyten will have their hands full with Wayne Rooney.

United are here after throttling an under-strength Milan at Old Trafford, but it's easy to say that the tie was won in the first leg. It starts with Wayne Rooney, who is putting this team on his back much like Kaka did with Milan in 2007, Ronaldo for United in 2008, and Messi for Barcelona in 2009. At this stage, you are looking for the player that is emerging from the pack for World Player of the Year, and Rooney is in the discussion. Their flank play will be a daunting challenge for the Germans as well. Park Ji Sung has shined in these matches, and Antonio Valencia is starting to settle in as well. Patrice Evra will be important in this as well, with his runs down the left hand side.

Off the cuff, knee-jerk prediction: United, and solely because of Rooney. I don't see Bayern's backline containing him, whether he finds the perfect spot in the penalty area on crosses, or if he creates his own chances. The German side have the talent to keep this interesting, but in the end their defense will get pulled apart in the 2nd leg, and that will be the difference.

Arsenal FC (ENG) v FC Barcelona (ESP)
Outlook: Call it luck of the draw, or say the balls in the pot for Arsenal and Barcelona were heavier than the rest. Nonetheless, on name-brand this is the marquee tie of the round. The storylines alone are interesting enough, with Henry returning to London and Fabregas heading to where he grew up playing his football. These are the two sides that no matter what the competition, they play attacking football and they stick to it.

Arsenal didn't break a sweat in destroying Porto 5-0 in the 2nd leg of the Round of 16 to get here. There's hope they found a finisher in Nicklas Bendtner in the process. It is never a question of playmaking talent with Arsenal. Arsene Wenger has an embarrassment of riches in that department with Cesc Fabregas, Andrei Arshavin, Tomas Rosicky, Samir Nasri, and Theo Walcott to choose from. The challenge for the Gunners is who makes up the spine of this team? They have had injury issues on the backline, and they have never really solved the holding midfield problem since Mathieu Flamini's departure. This tie will be a fight for possession, and Barcelona may not be accustomed to that, and if Arsenal can get superiority, they'll have a chance.

Barcelona also had a walk in the park in the last round after destroying Stuttgart 4-0. Impressive in that result was that they have accomplished it without Xavi, one of their main string-pullers. It helps when you have Lionel Messi in the team, World Player of the Year in 2009 and building his case in 2010. Barcelona make their living by playing expansive, attractive football as we all know. In Yaya Toure and Sergio Busquets, though, they have midfielders who functionally cancel out the opponent's playmaker (Fabregas for Arsenal).

Off the cuff, knee-jerk prediction: Barcelona and it may not be close. This is a bad matchup for Arsenal (it's a bad matchup for anyone who has to play Barca), particularly because of the lack of strength in the center of defense and in the defensive midfield. Pep Guardiola's men are determined to be the first side to repeat as Champions League winners in over 20 years. They'll live with whatever result happens at the Emirates and turn up the style at Camp Nou.

Inter Milan (ITA) v CSKA Moscow (RUS)
Outlook: Not as much a done deal as you think. Inter, despite all their success domestically, are in unchartered waters on the continent. The Nerazzurri are quarterfinalists for the first time in a few years. The Russian side are physically going to be fresher, as their domestic season is just getting started. Stands to reason why Russian and Ukranian sides have made deep runs in the UEFA Cup in recent years.

Inter are here to many's surprise after a 1-0 at Mourinho Bridge against Chelsea (I'm calling it that until Mourinho goes there and loses again, sorry Chelsea fan). They have the players and organization under Jose Mourinho to be able to find ways to win cup ties. Lucio and Walter Samuel are a solid combination at the center of defense, and Maicon is in a two-Brazilian discussion with Daniel Alves over who is the world's best right back. The midfield gives them a backbone with players like Esteban Cambiasso, Dejan Stankovic, and Sully Muntari. The playmaking of Wesley Sneijder has given them more of an attractiveness, and they get their goals from Samuel Eto'o and Diego Milito. From an organzation standpoint, they're as good as anyone left in this competition.

CSKA Moscow are here largely thanks to a blunder by Sevilla's goalkeeper, but they have the quality to pull this off. In Akinfeev, they have experience in goal. In their 4-5-1, it's about Honda pulling the strings. Additionally, they have a winger in Milos Krasic, who has gotten the attention of many of the big clubs. This is a side that played it tight with Manchester United in the group stage, and will be full of confidence after knocking off Sevilla. The 2nd leg is in Russia, and the big teams hate making that trip. So any manageable result in Milan, even a 1-0 defeat, they'll take home confidently.

Off the cuff, knee-jerk prediction: It's hard for me to bet against Inter in this one. CSKA will have a more difficult time with Inter's organization and discipline. Krasic may have issues dealing with Zanetti, and Honda may disappear in that holding midfield of the Nerazzurri. Jose Mourinho is on a mission, too. After knocking off his former employer, his side will have a lot more confidence.