Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Table Analysis: Serie A

Three teams, with 3 points separating 3rd from 1st. 7 matches remaining for each team. Time to look at the remaining fixtures for the title contenders and figure out who will come out on top.

CURRENT TABLE

  1. Inter Milan: 63 points.
  2. AS Roma: 61 points.
  3. AC Milan: 60 points.

Inter
Reamining Fixtures: Bologna (H), Fiorentina (A), Juventus (H), Atalanta (H), Lazio (A), Chievo (H), Siena (A)
OUTLOOK: Inter appear to have the most favorable fixture list of all the contenders. The toughest match is Fiorentina away, but they get Juventus home. The other 5 teams are sitting 13th or lower with 2 of the teams (Atalanta and Siena) currently in the drop. The issues with this team are 1. Discipline, 2. The Champions League distraction and 3. Jose Mourinho's constant flirtation with returning to England. Inter are a team whose players seem to get suspended for rather silly reasons, not to mention the next touchline ban for Mourinho whenever it happens. In addition, they'll fancy their chances as a team who can make life difficult for Arsenal or Barcelona, that is of course if they survive CSKA Moscow in the Champions League. Finally, at what point does Mourinho's desire to return to England or try and capture La Liga in Spain finally become a distraction in the Nerazzurri dressing room.
WHAT'S REASONABLE TO EXPECT: I think Inter's remaining defeat in league will be at Fiorentina, while they'll likely split points with Juventus. Beyond that, I can't imagine they'll drop points to the other five teams on the schedule. 5 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat for 16 points to finish out the season on 79 points.

AS Roma
Remaining Fixtures: Bari (A), Atalanta (H), Lazio (A- Derby), Sampdoria (H), Parma (A), Cagliari (H), Chievo (A).
OUTLOOK: This isn't a bad list for a team that has made an unlikely surge, and is looking to continue to put the pressure on the 4-time defending champions. They start with a Bari side that has been sneaky good at the San Nicola, and unbeaten in their last 5. 3 points is a requirement in that one. The home list is rather comfortable as Sampdoria looks like the toughest match, and they have been uninspiring away and against top half competition. You would think Cagliari would be a tough task, but the wheels have fallen off lately. Parma away is brutal as well, as they have taken points from both Inter and Milan there. It's been an impressive run for the Giallorossi, currently on a 21 match unbeaten run to get to this point. Luca Toni has been a revelation for them, and Daniele De Rossi is playing as well as anyone in Italy at this point, just in time for the World Cup. Hard to imagine they are often doing this without Francesco Totti, but they've come together quite impressively.
WHAT'S REASONABLE TO EXPECT: If I have Inter finishing on 79 points, then Roma must finish on 19 to overtake them or 18 and hope for a better goal difference. That their due for a defeat somewhere and manager Claudio Ranieri's track record for being a bridesmaid (2nd place finishes with Juventus and Chelsea in recent years) prevent me from believing this can happen. I think the fixture list has enough landmines, Parma in particular, to prevent them from overhauling the champions. I see a defeat at Parma, and draws with Bari and Lazio. 4 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat. 13 points to finish the season on 74 points.

AC Milan
Remaining Fixtures: Cagliari (A), Catania (H), Sampdoria (A), Palermo (A), Fiorentina (H), Genoa (A), Juventus (H).
OUTLOOK: If the Rossoneri were hoping to make a strong push to end the season, the scheduling gods didn't do them any favors. The lowest positioned opponent left is Catania (14th), and that's a home match. Five of their opponents are all going to be spending the rest of the season jockeying for position in European places with one Champions League place available and the likelihood that one or two of those teams could be left out of Europe altogether. Cagliari might be dipping, but on 40 points they are not far off of a place either. Palermo and Genoa are as rough as it gets for away fixtures as they are currently 2nd and 4th, respectively, on their home ground (Palermo have yet to lose at home). Sampdoria is another side that have yet to lose on their ground as well. Yet, if they can recover Pato and if Ronaldinho can stay healthy, Milan are a side that can score on anyone as their remaining opponents do combine for a healthy 1.33 goals against average.
WHAT'S REASONABLE TO EXPECT: To be correct in determining any chance Milan had of winning the Scudetto was lost in their last three matches; an away defeat to Parma sandwiched by home draws with Napoli and Lazio. Considering the laundry list of injuries (especially in defense), and a daunting fixture list, consolidating 3rd should be Milan's focus for the remainder of the season. I can't see them winning at Sampdoria or Palermo, and they should split points with Juventus and Genoa. 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats. 11 points for a total of 71 points.

CONCLUSION: Pretty much going to be as you were with a little bit of separation down the stretch. Inter should clinch this on the 36th or 37th round. At the moment it is up for grabs, but Inter has by far the most favorable schedule of any of the teams left.



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