Table Analysis: German Bundesliga

Yesterday it was looking at how Serie A might finish, today the emphasis is on Germany. Like Italy, there are 3 contenders. Each have 6 matches remaining. Let's have a look at the contenders and their remaining fixtures:

CURRENT TABLE

1. Schalke 04: 58 points
2. Bayern Munich: 56 points
3. Bayer Leverkusen: 53 points

Schalke 04
Remaining Fixtures: Bayern Munich (H), Hannover 96 (A), Borussia M'Bach (H), Hertha Berlin (A), Werder Bremen (H), Mainz (A)
OUTLOOK: The obvious emphasis here is going to be on this Saturday's showdown with Bayern. Beyond that, though, it is a very manageable schedule. The toughest fixture after Saturday is Werder Bremen, and that's in Gelsenkirchen. Two of their three away fixtures are against teams in the drop, Hannover and Hertha Berlin, while away to Mainz will be tricky as they currently boast the 5th best home record. With Schalke having the best away record in the Bundesliga, my guess is they will get all 9 points from their fixtures away from Gelsenkirchen. So it will come down to the home dates with Bayern Munich and Werder Bremen. Win this Saturday against the Bavarians, and they'll open a 5 point gap and have one hand on the title. Two other things are going for them at the moment. 1) the best defensive record in the league conceding only 22 goals and 2) Felix Magath, who as I've said in blogs past knows how to win in Germany.
WHAT'S REASONABLE TO EXPECT: I can see them splitting points at home with Bayern and being satisfied with that, but I can't see them beating Werder who are running really strong at the moment and have the 2nd best away record (not to mention Bremen might fancy still sneaking into that 3rd spot). The other 4 matches should be wins though against 2 relegation strugglers and 2 sides who won't have much to play for. 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat. 13 points to finish the season on 71 points.

Bayern Munich
Remaining Fixtures: Schalke 04 (A), Bayer Leverkusen (A), Hannover 96 (H), Borussia M'Bach (A), VFL Bochum (H), Hertha Berlin (A).
OUTLOOK: We're going to know just how good a manager Louis van Gaal is these days and how much resolve Bayern has in what will be the two biggest weeks of the season. They need to find a way to take points from their fellow Bundesliga contenders in away fixtures, as well as negotiate their way to the Champions League semifinals. An unenviable position for anyone to be in. After that it's nice and squishy for them as the highest position for the remaining opponents is 12th, an away fixture with Monchengladbach. It's going to be imperative for them to at least split points with Schalke 04 this Saturday, and I already think that's going to end in a draw. After that, they should win out. Leverkusen is still in this, but the wheels have fallen off their wagon only taking 9 points from their last 8 matches and conceding 14 goals in that process. Mario Gomez is getting healthy for the stretch run, and Arjen Robben ought to feature again. Based on things coming together, I really can't see Bayen losing another match.
WHAT'S REASONABLE TO EXPECT: I think they'll be disappointed to draw this Saturday but the remaining 5 matches are all very winnable fixtures for one reason or another. 5 and a draw is very likely here. 5 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses. 16 points to finish on 72 points.

Bayer Leverkusen
Remaining Fixtures: Eintracht Frankfurt (A), Bayern Munich (H), VFB Stuttgart (A), Hannover 96 (H), Hertha Berlin (H), Borussia M'Bach (A).
OUTLOOK: Seeing that I think Bayern will finish on 72, the most Bayer Leverkusen can get is 68 points (I have them losing to Bayern so they won't finish on 71). Even at that, I think reaching that number is out of the question. Eintracht Frankfurt has been solid this season and will be a tricky away fixture. Stuttgart has had a revival under Christian Gross and have 16 points from their last 8 matches (3rd best of any team in that span). They are only 5 back with 6 games remaining and anything can happen, but realistically this will be a tough task on their current form.
WHAT'S REASONABLE TO EXPECT: Like evaluating Milan yesterday, Leverkusen's priority should be on consolidating the 3rd and final Champions League place. They have Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen both closing very strong right now and 4 and 5 points behind Leverkusen, respectively. I can see them drawing this weekend with Eintracht, but I can't see them getting anything from Bayern or Stuttgart with the way they are playing, and more worryingly, conceding goals. 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 defeats. 10 points to finish on 63 points.

Interesting that Borussia M'Bach, Hannover, and Hertha all get to play a role in this. In Hannover and Hertha's case, it won't help them in their fight to avoid relegation to have to play the top three. As you can see, I like Bayern to overtake Schalke and win this year's Bundesliga by the slimmest of margins. Meanwhile, the 63 for Leverkusen may not be enough for 3rd depending on what Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen do. Should be a fun few weeks to finish the season.