Champions League, one more round of qualifiers.

Same format as last year if you haven't been following, and the draw to determine the last 10 teams for the Champions League is this Friday morning. The 22 teams that are already in the league stage are:
1FC Internazionale Milano (ITA) – Titleholders 100.867
2FC Barcelona (ESP) 136.951
3Manchester United FC (ENG) 125.371
4Chelsea FC (ENG) 118.371
5Arsenal FC (ENG) 115.371
6FC Bayern München (GER) 110.841
7AC Milan (ITA) 99.867
8Olympique Lyonnais (FRA) 96.748
9Real Madrid CF (ESP) 84.951
10AS Roma (ITA) 83.867
11FC Shakthar Donetsk (UKR) 73.910
12SL Benfica (POR) 72.659
13Valencia CF (ESP) 66.951
14Olympique de Marseille (FRA) 62.748
15Panathinaikos FC (GRE) 56.979
16Rangers FC (SCO) 56.158
17FC Schalke 04 (GER) 54.841
18FC Spartak Moskva (RUS) 33.758
19FC Twente (NED) 25.309
20FC Rubin Kazan (RUS) 21.758
21CFR 1907 Cluj (ROU) 15.898
22Bursaspor (TUR) 6.890

The number to the right is their UEFA Club Coefficient. This number is important as it will determine who the seeded teams will be, who will be in Pot 2, Pot 3, and Pot 4.

The Playoff Round Participants, if I am to have the website interpreted correctly, will be in these pots:

CHAMPIONS ROUTE
Pot 1
FC Basel (SUI) 48.675
RSC Anderlecht (BEL) 42.58
FC Kobenhavn (DEN) 34.47
Hapoel Tel Aviv (ISR) 27.775
Sparta Prague (CZE) 27.395

CHAMPIONS ROUTE
Pot 2
Rosenborg (NOR)
23.98FC Salzburg (AUT)
19.915Partizan Belgrade (SER)
13.8MSK Zilina (SVK)
10.67FC Sheriff (MDA) 5.46

OUTLOOK: Rosenborg has history in the Champions League, although distant, and would be the biggest threat. Still, I can't see any of the teams in the first pot going out in the playoff stage.

LEAGUE ROUTE
Pot 1
Sevilla (ESP) 108.951
Werder Bremen (GER) 94.841
Zenit (RUS) 61.258
Tottenham (ENG) 56.371
Ajax (NED) 55.309

LEAGUE ROUTE
Pot 2
Dynamo Kiev (UKR) 42.910
SC Braga (POR) 39.659
Sampdoria (ITA) 30.867
Auxerre (FRA) 19.748
BSC Young Boys (SUI) 7.675

OUTLOOK: 2 or 3 teams are going to be good enough to reach the league stage and will end up getting shipped to the Europa League. This is obviously the more exciting draw as Dynamo Kiev gave Barcelona and Inter all they wanted at the group stage last season. Sampdoria won't be a pushover either, and Braga demolished Celtic in the first leg of the previous playoff to get here. Sevilla will go through and as a result will be a seeded team in the group stage draw based on their coefficient.

Just thought I would drop a little knowledge on how this works.

Shot From Distance: Wishlist for the 32 Nations who competed in the World Cup

Here is a wishlist for the 32 Nations who just finished the World Cup, what they wish for if they are to qualify for the 2014 World Cup

• South Africa: to play consistently with the determination they showed against Mexico and France.
• Uruguay: For Luis Suarez to become Diego Forlan of 2010, and for Edinson Cavani to become the Luis Suarez of 2010.
• Mexico: A defense to go with all those promising attackers, and for an AR who knows how to raise his flag.
• France: For Zinedine Zidane to find the Fountain of Youth, and for players to actually give a damn about playing for their country.
• Argentina: For Diego Maradona to be tactically competent (heaven help them, they are extedning his contract through the 2014 World Cup), and of course for Lionel Messi to duplicate his club form.
• Korea Republic: for Park Ji Sung to stay healthy.
• Greece: The ability to actually score when it is 11 v 11.
• Nigeria: To be better prepared for 2014 (they should be if they keep Lars Lagerback as manager).
• England: A goalkeeper, goal line technology, and for their fans to be more realistic about how good they actually are.
• USA: To believe they should be a consistent quarterfinalist at the World Cup.
• Slovenia: To close out a 2-0 lead.
• Algeria: To score a goal.
• Germany: that the current crop remains healthy, and to get officials who won't give out rash cards.
• Ghana: Someone to make a PK.
• Australia: An influx of young, promising players, and quickly.
• Serbia: To keep maturing, and for a game plan that doesn't center around putting the ball on Nikola Zigic' head.
• Netherlands: that they get back to the football we know they are good at, and stop with the street fighting.
• Japan: That Keisuke Honda stays healthy.
• Denmark: A creative midfielder, and for Nicklas Bendtner to become like a Laudrup, or an Elkjaer.
• Cameroon: for the 1990 team to time travel to 2014.
• Italy: that their young stars mature and play modern football.
• Paraguay: for one of their promising strikers to actually score a goal.
• New Zealand: to take the next step and win a World Cup match.
• Slovakia: For another world power to underestimate them.
• Brazil: To keep their concentration, and get back to Jogo Bonito.
• Portugal: To score goals. And for Cristiano Ronaldo to duplicate his club form.
• Cote' D'Ivoire: To actually live up to their talent.
• North Korea: To be in a group where they can get at least 1 point.
• Spain: To do that again.
• Chile: To not self destruct against teams in the World top 10.
• Switzerland: Goals.
• Honduras: Goals.

The Frankly Football World Cup XI

Amazing that nearly a month has past and we are descending upon the final in Soccer City on Sunday, preceded of course by the usually entertaining 3rd place match. I don't expect any developments from those games to impact the team I am putting forward now, and as you will see, this edition is dominated by the final four nations.

And why not? They were the most consistent teams in the competition, in terms of how they sought out to play and the success with which they played with. The fun part is that this is a World Cup XI that is missing the marquee names. Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, Kaka, Wayne Rooney, none of these played to the standard that we expect to see from them for club week in and week out (might be a little harsh on Messi as he did have 15 shots on target).

Let's dive into it, shall we?



GOALKEEPER: Iker Casillas, Spain
I was being given a compelling argument by a friend that Martin Stekelenburg of Holland belongs here, but I'm going with the Spaniard on this one. He made a couple of strange decisions, but by and large had the best box presence of all the goalkeepers, and I thought his distribution in the tournament was particularly strong.




RIGHT BACK: Phillip Lahm, Germany
The German captain played with a tireless work rate and a combative spirit. In attack, you could find him bombing down the right hand side in support, as well as do the dirty work in defense. Lahm epitomized German efficiency throughout the competition.




CENTER HALF: Carlos Puyol, Spain
An absolute lionheart in the center of defense, scorer of the winner against Germany and played a big part in keeping Miroslav Klose quiet. Tremendous in defense with his tackling and ability to win aerial battles.



CENTER HALF: Gerard Pique, Spain
I'm not crushing on Spain, really I'm not (though I think they will win the Final). However Pique has been an exceptional complement to Puyol throughout the competition. Pique arguably has good enough technical qualities to play in midfield, very composed on the ball and like a defender, not afraid to make the hard challenge.

LEFT BACK: Maicon, Brazil
He makes my team but he has to move over to the left because Lahm outperformed him in this tournament (though Lahm has more experience from the left hand side, I can always swap them in the run of play). Despite Brazil's disappointing quarterfinal exit, you can't question his work ethic throughout. If you want someone who actually played left back in the World Cup, I wouldn't argue with you if you put Holland's Giovanni van Bronckhorst here (largely because of that goal), or Portugal's Fabio Coentrao (someone from that Portugal backline should get in for shutting out Ivory Coast and Brazil).

RIGHT WINGER: Arjen Robben, Netherlands
Scored what is becoming his trademark goal against Slovakia (running inside from the left and striking from distance with his left foot), and headed the Dutch into the Final. A complete nuisance to Brazil's defense in the quarterfinal as well.

CENTER MIDFIELD: Bastian Schweinsteiger, Germany
Martin Tyler referred to him as "boss" in the Argentina game. You could probably also describe him as that in the England win too. Per fifa.com, Schweinsteiger has covered the most distance in this tournament (68.69 km total, or just over 7 miles a game). He did everything from protecting the back four to running to higher positions off the ball to taking on defenders 1v1 (or 1v3 against Argentina).

CENTER MIDFIELD: Xabi Alonso, Spain
Another midfield policeman who has been responsible for protecting the Spain rearguard as much as keeping possession and staring attacks for his country. Should be credited just as much for Spain's goals against record (2 allowed; that fluke against Switzerland and 1 against Chile when their place in the next round seemed confirmed) as Casillas, Puyol, and Pique.

LEFT WINGER/FORWARD: David Villa, Spain
Most effective in this position, and that was evident by him being kept rather quiet in the semis against Germany when asked to lead the line up front. Tied for the lead on 5 goals, and has scored them in a variety of ways, from poaching to creating his own chances.

ATTACKING CENTER MIDFIELDER: Wesley Sneijder, Netherlands
Level with Villa on goals, the most notable with his head against Brazil, something he is not totally known for. Winning the World Cup on Sunday will cap a dream year for the Inter man, and will have him squarely in the World Player of the Year discussion. Tremendous vision, passing, and of course finishing.

FORWARD: Diego Forlan, Uruguay
Carried his strong form with club right into the World Cup. Put his country on his back to make an improbable semifinal run. Came up with clutch goals against Ghana (arguably the best free kick of the tournament) and Holland. Also functioned quite nicely as a playmaker when Luis Suarez was in the team.

So there's the 11. Who's yours?

The Worst Italy Team in the last 30 years

As I watched this pathetic excuse for a defending World Cup champion stumble through draws with Paraguay and New Zealand, and then finally decide to start playing against Slovakia after they were 2-0 down, I was trying to think back as far as I can remember to determine if there was ever a worse Italy than the 2010 edition that Marcello Lippi trotted out there.



The '86 squad that went out in the 2nd round to France is possible, but they were actually a very good team that had to deal with two of the best players in the world that tournament; Diego Maradona of Argentina (group stage) and Michel Platini of France (2nd round exit). So then I though about 1996 Euros in England, but they did win a match despite going out in the group stages. So forward to Japan/Korea in 2002, and I just think in disgust of the 5 goals they had denied from them by bad officiating. 2004? They didn't lose in matches against Denmark, Sweden, and Bulgaria. I'd say Donadoni's 2008 team, but they had to deal with Holland, Romania, France, and took eventual champ Spain to penalties.



Simply put, this is the worst Italy team I have ever watched in the time I have followed this sport. For three games in this World Cup, I suffered through an Italy that genuinely lacked ideas. There was no plan B once Andrea Pirlo went down injured, and Lippi could have gotten more out of the Statue of David than he got out of Vicenzo Iaquinta and Alberto Gilardino. The defense held up in the first two matches, with the only shots on goal seemingly the goals they allowed (and both on set pieces). Yet, this was an Italy side that was desparate for answers in attack. No, Antonio Cassano, Fabrizio Miccoli, Mario Balotelli, or Francesco Totti would have made this any better. The squad that Lippi picked in theory should have performed better in this World Cup, but his lineups meant an Italy that would be narrow and dreadfully predictable.



I'm going to pick apart the team that Lippi preferred throughout this World Cup, and then outline for incoming manager Cesare Prandelli the team that should be out there in the future.



LIPPI'S TEAM:

• Goalkeeper: Gianlugi Buffon, then Federico Marchetti. Buffon ended up getting a herniated disk in his back during the Paraguay game (apparently from digging the ball out of the net on Paraguay's goal, because that appeared to be his only action that game), so Lippi was forced to play Federico Marchetti for the remaining 2 and a half games. Marchetti stood in well and did his job, as there weren't any howlers that he gave up. When healthy, Buffon is one of the best goalkeepers in the world, but he has been consistently struggling with his fitness for the last two seasons.


• Defender (right full back): Gianluca Zambrotta. Zambrotta has had an amazing career with Il Nazionale, but the fact that his club side preferred to convert a winger to play in the same position, should tell you all you needed to know about him. Zambrotta hardly looked dangerous in attack on the right flank.


• Defender (center half): Fabio Cannavaro. Apparently Lippi didn't watch any Juventus games this season to see how easily picked apart the Juventus defense was in big games. Cannavaro is 36, and while he was an absolute stud at World Cup 2006, he has been well past it for some time.


• Defender (center half): Giorgio Chiellini. Hard to be critical of Chiellini because I think he had to spend a lot of time covering up for Cannavaro and sometimes Zambrotta. A younger center half who is solid on the ball would have been a more ideal partner and might have made a difference in the goals given up against Paraguay and New Zealand.


• Defender (left full back): Domenico Criscito. I actually thought Criscito had a good tournament. He was getting forward down the left flank and helping the Azzurri to keep the ball. He has a lock on this position for the next couple of tournaments.


• Midfielder: Claudio Marchisio. Another Juventus player who I think was asked to work on the left hand side and often looked lost out there.


• Midfielder: Ricardo Montolivo. Pirlo's replacement, and clearly does not have the vision and skill necessary to dictate the tempo that Pirlo does.


• Midfielder: Daniele De Rossi. The next captain, and he should be. He looks fantastic when he has someone with the skillset of Pirlo to partner with in the midfield. All he has to do is be the ball winner and get it to Pirlo to start the attack. He and Montolivo clearly lacked an understanding of each other when the ball had to go forward.


• Midfielder (Winger): Simone Pepe. I liked the idea of Pepe in the team and starting, because he could offer pace and crossing for the strikers. Unfortunately in this tournament, it appeared to me that he was only interested in crossing the ball, and thus making his play awfully predictable. Zambrotta's lack of overlaps forced Pepe's hand.


• Striker: Vicenzo Iaquinta. Another Juve player, and one who only scored 7 goals in all competitions this past season.


• Striker: Alberto Gilardino. He simply cannot do it in the big matches. See his performances for AC Milan. Italy looked like they were playing with 10 men when he was out there.

Antonio Di Natale did a nice job of providing some playmaking up top and certainly was livelier than Gilardino, but he is 32 years old now, so time has passed him by. Mauro Camoranesi got roughly 30 minutes against Paraguay and was impressive, but we know this is his last Cup. Fabio Quagliarella and Christian Maggio got to see time in the 2nd half against Slovakia and each impressed.

So, it's time to move on from the geriatric mess that Lippi sent to Africa, and perhaps help Mr. Prandelli with a list of players who should be representing Italy in Euro 2012 (assuming they get there):

GOALKEEPERS: Federico Marchetti, Salvatore Sirigu, Andrea Consigli
Rationale: Marchetti will be the goalkeeper with experience and having been Buffon's understudy will be ready to take the reins. Sirigu had an impressive season at Palermo and was the last goalkeeper cut for the 2010 World Cup team. He's 23. Andrea Consigli played for the Italian Under-21s and is a promising young goalkeeper.
You could also offer: Marco Amelia. The well-travelled goalkeeper just joined Milan and could potentially revive his career there.

DEFENDERS: Domenico Criscito, Giorgio Chiellini, Salvatore Bocchetti, Leonardo Bonucci, Christian Maggio, Davide Santon, Mattea Cassani
Rationale: I like Maggio to take the reins at right back, at least for the next two years from Gianluca Zambrotta. After that, Prandelli will have to determine if Santon can fit as a right back. Bocchetti would be the future partner to Chiellini in the center of defense. Cassani missed the final cut for this year's World Cup team.
You could also offer: Ignazio Abate. Abate has been converted to right back for AC Milan and was solid getting forward with his crossing, and is improving as a defender in that role. Marco Motta of Roma could also step into the right back role in the future.

MIDFIELDERS: Daniele De Rossi, Simone Pepe, Claudio Marchisio, Ricardo Montolivo, Antonio Nocerino, Luca Cigarini, Antonio Candreva
Rationale: I'm going to give Marchisio a pass for his performance at the World Cup because I think from a tactical perspective, it wasn't really clear what was expected of him. Often times he got in the way of his midfield teammates as a result. The central midfield players like Nocerino, De Rossi, and Cigarini can certainly function as ballwinners in the mold of Gennaro Gattuso. Antonio Candreva, if properly utilized, can operate as a playmaker in close to the striker or strikers. Prandelli's Fiorentina teams had some good use of flank play, so you have to think that Pepe will be prominant in his plans.
You could also offer: Andrea Pirlo. He'll be 33 by the time the Euros roll around and I'm sure he'll want to take one last shot. Then again, it wouldn't surprise me to see if Prandelli goes with youth.

FORWARDS: Fabio Quagliarella, Giampaolo Pazzini, Sebastian Giovinco, Alberto Gilardino, Robert Acquafresca
Rationale: I'll keep Gilardino in the team because the new Italy coach has been his club coach for the past two seasons, and Prandelli seems to have gotten the best out of him. Giovinco is the playmaker that Italy desparately missed this World Cup, and one expects that he will mature over the next couple of seasons. In the theory that Prandelli will play wider, I could see Giovinco (or Quagliarella) operating as a winger opposite Pepe with one striker. In this case Pazzini. Acquafresca has been bounced around at so many clubs over the years but he is a young talent that can be prolific once he is able to settle in somewhere.
You could also offer: Mario Balotelli. If he can keep his emotions in check and start to demonstrate some maturity, Italy will benefit. The Ghanaian born striker is loaded with talent. Antonio Cassano has had his chances in Euro 2004 and 2008 and was less than impressive. Vicenzo Iaquinta and Antonio Di Natale are too old.

That in mind, my Italy XI would be (4-3-3): Marchetti- Maggio- Bocchetti, Chiellini, Criscito, Cigarini, De Rossi, Montolivo, Giovinco, Pazzini, Pepe.

So that's my 23 for Italy for Euro 2012. We'll see what Prandelli does, but the next two years certainly need to be about transition, to set up nicely for Brazil 2014.

World Cup Shot From Distance: What each team has told us in their first game.

A quick blast of what the teams have shown us through their first game in the World Cup:

GROUP A:

• South Africa........have a nation behind them, and a work ethic and spirit that says they refuse to be the first host to go out in the first round.
• Mexico.......have an abundance of talent, but are young up front and lack composure.
• Uruguay..............have two world class strikers and will hope they do all the attacking for them.
• France.................continue to be a dysfunctional family under Raymond Domenech.

GROUP B:

• Argentina..............knows for now that Maradona hasn't screwed it up.
• Nigeria...................knows they probably could have lost about 6-0 to Argentina.
• Korea Republic...............have pace and counterattacking ability to win this group.
• Greece.........................looked like they were stuck in the mud.

GROUP C

• England....................are looking into getting 1970 Gordon Banks in a time machine to 2010.
• USA.....................got the result, now go and win the group.
• Algeria..................denying reports that Ghezzal was sent in to get sent off.
• Slovenia..................really? We lead the group?

GROUP D

• Germany........................Has scored 16 goals in their last three World Cup openers.
• Australia........................are not playing Uzbekistan, Bahrain, etc anymore.
• Ghana...........................Michael who?
• Serbia...........................needs far more from Zigic, Krasic, and Pantelic than they got.

GROUP E

• Netherlands.........................own goals and rebounds, wait till Robben is back.
• Denmark............................okay that's done, now let's get 6 points on the other two teams.
• Cameroon.........................does anybody know what they're doing out there?
• Japan..............................still happy to be here? Or can you spring a bigger upset?

GROUP F

• Italy.....................Desparate for Pirlo, and need more from the strikers.
• Paraguay.............Cardozo, Barrios, and Santa Cruz disappeared, did they go home?
• New Zealand........come on ref, our first point! Wouldn't you have taken your shirt off too?
• Slovakia...............needs to close it out.

GROUP G

• Brazil.....................what was more embarrassing, only 2 goals against North Korea or giving one up?
• North Korea.............hope we can try and do that again.
• Ivory Coast....................really? That's what we get from you?
• Portugal.........................really? That's what we get from you?

GROUP H

• Spain.........................can still win this group.
• Switzerland....................Ottmar Hitzfeld can coach. See Borussia Dortmund's Champions League win over Juventus in 1997.
• Chile...........................Alexis Sanchez may not do that against Switzerland or Spain, but he showed promise.
• Honduras.....................desparate for Suazo.

Frankly Football's World Cup Predictions: Knocking 'Em Out and Picking a Champion

Now that I have mulled over the group stages, it is time for me to pick the knockout rounds. Based on my predicted orders of finish for each group, the round of 16 is sure to feature some very intriguing matchups.

ROUND OF 16

Mexico v Greece
Mexico has done well to reach the knockout stage in each of their last 5 appearnces, however they only progressed once to the quarterfinals, when they were hosts in 1986. This would be unchartered water for the Greeks, who will be the survivor of a 2nd place battle with Nigeria and Korea Republic in Group B. Greece should be able to resist for a good portion of the match, but will finally break down to Mexico's young strikers.
Mexico 2, Greece 0

England v Germany
A match fit for a final will take place in the round of 16. England will survive the USA in group play to get to this spot, while the Germans will land here after getting upset by Serbia. The thought here is that Germany may not have a defense partnership to deal with Wayne Rooney, and should be able to exhibit superiority in midfield. Is this the game where England will finally miss Rio Ferdinand? Germany will come at the Brits with their flank play, and hope to expose Capello's left and right backs. Should be a thrilling matchup of one of world football's great rivalries.
England 2, Germany 1 (after extra time)

Serbia v United States
The Serbs finish group play as one of the surprise packets, outlasting Germany in winning group D and getting what appears to be a favorable matchup with USA. Will the American backline be sorted out in time for this one? It will have to be as friendlies with Eastern European teams like Czech Republic and Turkey weren't as convincing. Will the presence of defenders like Ivanovic, Vidic, Kolarov, and Subotic be too strong for the American strikers or will Buddle find space against them (if he plays). It's a tough matchup for the US, with Nikola Zigic having the height to win the aerial battles on the US defenders. The catalyst will be Milos Krasic, whether lined up left or right side, will cause the US outside backs a lot of problems.
Serbia 1, United States 0

Argentina v Uruguay
Attacking football should be prevelant in this one, with names such as Messi, Forlan, Tevez, Suarez, Lodeiro, and di Maria on offer. There isn't a player in Uruguay's midfield or defense that can deal with Lionel Messi, and the man who has been so brilliant for Barcelona will equal that level in this one.
Argentina 3, Uruguay 0

Netherlands v Slovakia
And the countdown to a Dutch meltdown will start now. They will boss the group stages and everyone will watch as to win this team will burnout. It won't be here. Slovakia will find just enough magic to outlast Paraguay to get to this spot, but will not have an answer for a more balanced Dutch attack.
Netherlands 2, Slovakia 0

Brazil v Switzerland
Not going to waste your time with this one. Hitzfeld had enough know how to get past Chile and Honduras to get here, but there isn't enough in the Swiss side to deal with the Selecao. Organized and rigid in defense with enough flair in attack, this will be a clinic.
Brazil 4, Switzerland 0.

Italy v Cameroon
Simple formula for the Italians: score a goal, park the bus in front of goal. Cameroon will make this interesting, but Lippi will have picked out the dangers of the Indomitable Lions (namely Samuel Eto'o). The Azzurri will have gotten their legs under them after getting tough tests from Paraguay and Slovakia, and with Cameroon hell-bent on being the first African semifinalist, Italy should survive and advance.
Italy 1, Cameroon 0.

Spain v Cote D'Ivoire
Another scintillating fixture on the round of 16 list, especially if Didier Drogba can be fit for it. The Ivorians will survive Portugal to get to this point, but whether they survive Spain could be another story. Like Holland, Spain have been long-time underachievers in this competition, more by luck than self destructing. The Ivorians will make this a street fight, not a good thing for players like Xavi, Iniesta, Torres, and David Silva, who pride themselves on having space and keeping the ball. Yet, Spain have just that much more depth than the Elephants, and it should see them through.
Spain 2, Cote D'Ivoire 1.

QUARTERFINALS

Netherlands v Brazil
Here's where it ends for the Oranje. Arjen Robben didn't score on Julio Cesar in the Champions League final, and he may not score here. The weakest part of either team will be the Dutch backline, and that's not good when you're playing Brazil. Luis Fabiano should be a handful up front, and the wing play of Robinho and Ramires will provide a lot of problems. Yet, with van der Vaart, Sneijder, van Persie, Robben, and Kuyt, there are plenty of options for Netherlands. This may be the match of the tournament like it was at USA '94. I think there is just enough organization in the Brazil defense to see it through.
Brazil 2, Netherlands 1.

Mexico v England
El Tri finally get over the hump and reach the quarterfinals again. Fabio Capello's men will outlast Germany, a necessary monkey to get off the backs of England fans everywhere. They met in a friendly where England won 3-1 using mainly fringe players, but Mexico showed a lot of promise in that match. I just think that England will be too organized and too disciplined for the Mexicans. Capello will watch that friendly for all the tendencies in his preparation, and Mexico's leaky defense will finally give in to a superior attack. I'lltake the same scoreline as the friendly, but this England will be more dominant.
England 3, Mexico 1.

Argentina v Serbia
Will there be more Messi magic, or will the Serbian defense try and chop him down the entire 90 minutes? I think the latter will happen, but the Serbs will do that at their peril, with Carlos Tevez more than happy to take on the burden in attack. When they were Serbia and Montenegro, the Argies thrashed them 6-0 in World Cup 2006. But they had a better manager, and Esteban Cambiasso. Argentina have neither, but they have Messi and Tevez, that should be enough.
Argentina 2, Serbia 1.

Italy v Spain
No one gave the Italians a chance when these two met in Euro 2008, and the match went to penalties, thanks to the Italian philosophy of parking the bus in front of goal as discussed with how they will get by Cameroon. 2 years later, and the Italians are that much older and slower, and Torres and David Villa are in their prime. This is a rock solid Spain defense, and the European Champions will learn from their errors in the 2009 Confed Cup.
Spain 1, Italy 0

SEMIFINALS

England v Brazil
If only Capello had Gordon Banks in his prime. Finally, England will run into some wingers that they will struggle to deal with. Additionally, Brazil's center-halves should be successful in keeping Rooney in their back pocket. This will be a chess match for 90 minutes and then to extra time. Neither team will get more than a goal, and it will go to penalties. Heartbreak for England again, as in 1990, with Brazil boasting the better goalkeeper for the occasion.
England 1, Brazil 1 (Brazil advance on PKs)

Argentina v Spain
How did Inter silence Lionel Messi? He was defended by Argentinians like Cambiasso and Zanetti. How will Spain keep him quiet? His teammates Pique and Puyol will have the answer. Additionally, this is where the Argentine defense will crumble after exceeding expectations to get to this point. This will rival the Holland-Brazil quarterfinal as match of the tournament. I'm calling for Spain's experience and depth to outlast Maradona's men.
Spain 3, Argentina 2.

THIRD PLACE: England v Argentina
England looks forward to payback for 1986, and 1998 (yes they got a little in 2002 but that was in the group stage). Argentina will arrive at this match to put on a show, after being disappointed in not facing their bitter rival Brazil in the final. England's backline will have issues with Lionel Messi, and he'll be in line for the Golden Boot with his performance in this match.
Argentina 3, England 2.

FINAL: Brazil v Spain
After all that thinking and re-thinking, I went chalk for the final. The top two teams in FIFA's World rankings seem to be the most organized, and seem to also have the right combination of attacking players to get this far. If suspensions can be avoided, this will be the most entertaining final since 1986 when Argentina outlasted West Germany in the altitude of Mexico.

Brazil will line up with two holding midfielders, and might do this all tournament, to combat the tippy-tappy passing of the Spaniards. Look for Felipe Melo and Gilberto Silva to trade off limiting Xavi's space and time with the ball. Spain coach Vicente del Bosque will likely play Fernando Torres and David Villa in attack from the start, in hopes of pulling apart Brazil's center backs (likely Lucio and Juan) and trying to pin Maicon back from venturing forward. In attack for Brazil, look for them to go with just Luis Fabiano up front, with Robinho and Ramires occupying the flanks. This will give Kaka free reign in midfield and be the link between the holding mids and the rest of the attack. Spain's toughest call will be to decide if they want to counter with Xabi Alonso AND Sergio Busquets in midfield, or to leave Alonso and employ Iniesta and David Silva wide. I expcet the latter as they will want to pull apart Brazil's back line from the start. If they are successful and lead into the second half, you'll see Sergio be the first one off the bench to bring off one of Spain's more attack minded players. If Brazil score first, enter Josue or Kleberson to bring off Ramires, and pair Robinho in attack with Luis Fabiano, Kaka still linking the lines.

What will happen? Lots of chances in the run of play, but I think it will come down to an odd goal or a set piece. In that case, I think Brazil's chances are better. Lucio will be the unlikely hero, heading home a corner, and leading the Brazil rearguard to keep the Spaniards quiet. The Selecao showed last year at the Confed Cup that they were built to win this World Cup, and they will see it through for a sixth time.

BRAZIL 1, SPAIN 0.

As an Italian-American, I hope I am wrong. The World Cup is capable of some crazy things, and I'm sure there will be more twists in the plot than I have outlined here. Nonetheless, it should be a thrilling month ahead.

Frankly Football's World Cup Predictions: Groups E-H

Thank you to Kirk for pointing out in my previous blog that Ghana is known as the Black Stars and not the Super Eagles. My source who told me they are the Super Eagles has been sacked. So with A-D digested yesterday, here's a look at Groups E through H

GROUP E
Prediction for Order of Finish:

1. Netherlands
2. Cameroon
3. Denmark
4. Japan

Rationale: Arjen Robben or not, the Dutch are loaded and always seem to storm out during group play. There are still plenty of talented pieces such as Wesley Sneijder, Rafael van der Vaart, Dirk Kuyt, and Robin van Persie to go around. The challenge for them is can they maintain a high level of football for an entire month? In 2008, they bossed their way through a Euro group of Italy, France and Romania before getting bounced out by Russia in the quarterfinals. While Denmark was impressive in outlasting Sweden and Portugal in qualifying directly, they have injury issues with Simon Kjaer and Nicklas Bendnter. I'll go with Cameroon's experienced squad over the Danes for the runner up spot, spearheaded by Samuel Eto'o and guarded by underrated goalkeeper Idriss Kameni. I've already dropped a hint about the state of Asian football in the last blog, in reference to Australia's easy qualifying, and Japan was one of those teams. They have experience in Shunsuke Nakamura and Junichi Inamoto, and a rising star in Keisuke Honda, but the team is just not deep enough to hang with the other three teams here.

GROUP F
Prediction for Order of Finish:

1. Italy
2. Slovakia
3. Paraguay
4. New Zealand

Despite their struggles in the World Cup warmups and with Andrea Pirlo's injury, Italy should have enough to top this group. The key will be if the aging legs of players like Buffon, Cannavaro, Zambrotta, Di Natale, and Gattuso can hold up. The big match will be the Slovakia-Paraguay game, and this is where Marek Hamsik of Slovakia has a chance to get a big paycheck. Paraguay has an abundance of talent in attack with Oscar Cardozo and Roque Santa Cruz, but not a lot of proven players in defense. Again, the organized Eastern European team wins out. New Zealand gave the Italians a tough match last year in a 4-3 defeat, so don't necessarily count them out.

GROUP G
Prediction for Order of Finish

1. Brazil
2. Cote D'Ivoire
3. Portugal
4. North Korea

Rationale: Get ready for a tactically disciplined Brazil, who will keep it tight against their Group G rivals and obviously with their attacking flair, will be able to still create a ton of chances. They have the best goalkeeper in the world, Julio Cesar (who I think you could argue to be in the World Player of the Year race). They have the two best right backs in the world (Maicon and Daniel Alves) and the headache is which one to start. And of course, they have skill all over the park when you talk about Kaka, Elano, Robinho, Luis Fabiano, Michel Bastos, and Grafite. Even with Didier Drogba's injury, I tip the Ivorians to grab the 2nd spot. It will come down to the all important match on June 15th with Portugal. Like I can't trust France under Domenech, I don't trust Portugal under Carlos Queiroz. They barely qualified and almost missed the playoff to Sweden. They might bost the talent in Cristiano Ronaldo, Deco, and Ricardo Carvalho, but I'm not convinced they are disciplined enough. North Korea did a fantastic job to get here, but it will be an achievement if they get a point out of this group.

GROUP H
Prediction for Order of Finish:

1. Spain
2. Switzerland
3. Chile
4. Honduras

Rationale: Will Spain be able to finally lift a World Cup, or will they once again be jinxed? Judging from their 6-0 friendly win over Poland, it doesn't seem there is any tiredness to speak of, for now. Additionally, the draw gods smiled on them with this group. In 26 previous outings combined against their group rivals, the Spaniards have an astonishing 21 wins, 5 draws and 0 defeats, outsocring their foes 64-19 in that run. The 2010 editions of Switzerland, Chile, and Honduras doesn't look to measure up either. I like Switzerland to outlast Chile and Honduras because of the experience of the team itself (Philippe Senderos, Valon Behrami, Gokhan Inler, and Alexander Frei) as well as with their manager (Ottmar Hitzfeld is a Champions League winner with Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund at club level).

So my first knockout round looks like this based on my predictions:

• Mexico v Greece
• Argentina v Uruguay
• England v Germany
• Serbia v USA
• Netherlands v Slovakia
• Italy v Cameroon
• Brazil v Switzerland
• Spain v Cote D'Ivoire

Tomorrow, I'll pick the rest of the tournament and give who I think will win the World Cup.

Frankly Football's World Cup Prediction: Groups A-D

Okay, I have been wavering and going back and forth on this for far too long. Every day I seem to come up with a reason why a team I think will win today is better than who I thought would win yesterday. So it's time for me to buckle down and just pick how I think this thing will play out. Of course, one wrong placement can blow this whole thing up.



GROUP A
Prediction for Order of Finish:

1. Mexico


2. Uruguay


3. France


4. South Africa

Rationale: This has the potential to be the most exciting group in the first round. All of these teams have decent to excellent attacking players, and they all stink on defense. In that case, I'm going with the teams that have the better goalscoring tandems. I really like what I have seen from Carlos Vela and Javier Hernandez up front, and Mexico manager Javier Aguirre seems to have it right with Giovani Dos Santos on the flank. Uruguay has a prolific combination in Diego Forlan (Atletico Madrid) and Luis Suarex (Ajax), and Nicolas Lodeiro is a youngster who could stand to make a lot of money providing the chances for the frontmen. I simply cannot trust France. They have a lame duck manager in Raymond Domenech (more lame than duck too, but I digress), and looking at their squad there is so much imbalance (3 left backs in the squad; Abidal, Clichy, and Evra). I'm determined in my prediction that this will be the first World Cup that the host doesn't progress. South Africa just doesn't have the depth to compete with the teams they have drawn.

GROUP B
Prediction for Order of Finish:

1. Argentina


2. Greece


3. South Korea


4. Nigeria

Rationale: Argentina got the benefit of a favorable draw with the teams they are grouped with, as well as getting locations that are lower in altitude (in qualifying, Maradona's men were a nightmare in places of altitude, getting embarrassed by Bolivia and Ecuador). They are head and shoulders the class of this group, provided that Diego Maradona doesn't meddle too much with the team chemistry. Their stiffest test will come from Greece, and I'll take Otto Rehhagel's organization and stinginess over anything the Koreans and Nigerians will throw at them. You'll see a trend: the European teams that pride themselves on organization and discipline tend to do well in the group stage, as they will have had an abundance of time to prepare for their opponents.

GROUP C
Prediction for Order of Finish

1. England


2. United States


3. Algeria


4. Slovenia

Rationale: I really, really, really hope the US can pull off the upset in Rustenburg on Saturday and control their own destiny for the group win, but I think England is too physically imposing. While the Australia win was impressive, there are still issues with the back four, particularly if Oguchi Onyewu can regain his form from the Confederations Cup a year ago. Fabio Capello's England team has plenty of alternatives to replace Rio Ferdinand in defense, but the question mark will be the goalkeeping. They are star-studded and have plenty of experience when you speak of Frank Lampard, Steven Gerrard, John Terry, Wayne Rooney, and Ashley Cole. Algeria will be a stingy proposition but will prove they are not deep enough. As will Slovenia, who are here thanks to their win over Russia in qualifying playoffs.

GROUP D
Prediction for Order of Finish:

1. Serbia


2. Germany


3. Ghana


4. Australia

Rationale: Here is where my organized European team theory kicks in. I think the Serbians are a dark horse in this competition and win what I think is the Group of Death (I'm a believer that the Group of Death has to have 4 good teams, Group G only has 3). Do I think they will win? No, but they have talent and experience in a lot of positions. In back they have players like Nemanja Vidic, Neven Subotic, and Aleksandr Kolarov. Midfield includes veteran Dejan Stankovic, and winger Milos Krasic who stands to get rich off this World Cup. In Marko Pantelic and Nikola Zigic, they have two strikers who can finish in a variety of ways. Germany has some questions to answer in defense, particularly if Hans-Jorg Butt can carry over his club form in goal to replace injured Rene Adler. They had issues with a soft center of defense at times in 2006 and I'm not convinced they have the defenders to deal with Serbia's strike force. This could be a breakout World Cup for Sami Khedira as he will be looked at to lead the midfield in place of the injured Michael Ballack. Ghana will just miss out, and will rue the injury to their midfield leader Michael Essien. The Black Stars, still have experience with John Mensah, Stephen Appiah, and Sully Muntari, and could make me look bad here. Australia had a solid World Cup qualifying campaign, but you could argue that Asian football is down this year in quality compared to previous World Cups. The nuclues of their team is aging, and they were exposed in their friendly against USA on Saturday.

Tomorrow I'll yap about E-H, and Thursday I'll run down my knockout stages.

The Frankly Football All Good-Pickup Team for 2009-2010.

We all went through the Summer of 2009, with all the crazy transfer activity, and gushed over how great this move was for Team A or how this team will be sorry for buying Player X. Now that the club season is over (save for a really important game on May 22nd), it's time to take a look at the team of players who panned out the best.

I was going to make this a team of players that were purchased, but decided to qualify players who were either playing on loan or arrived on a free as well. As the season was winding down to a close, I was able to narrow things down to about 25 players for the 11 places. Some positions were certainly harder to fill that others.

Real Madrid had an awfully heavy influence in the 2009 Summer transfer market. Six out of eleven players that were part of Real Madrid's transactions make this list, pretty staggering when you consider that many other players had good seasons in their new homes.

This season's Good Pickup team also suggests if you want to win the UEFA Champions League, you better be ready to buy. 5 players on this team play for the two finalists, Bayern Munich and Inter Milan.

After really looking closer at things, I left all Manchester City arrivals off the list as well. While you'd think Carlos Tevez would be a shoo-in, a couple other strikers stepped in and scored more meaningful goals in the campaign. If I had a bench, Tevez would be on it. Kolo Toure was another consideration, as was Gareth Barry. If they cracked the top 4, at least one of them would have been included. In fact, the lowest ranked team from any league represented is Napoli, who finished 6th in Serie A.

Alright, I am done blabbing about who didn't make it, here is your 2009-2010 all good pickup team. As decided by me, in a 4-4-2 setup:

GOALKEEPER: Morgan de Sanctis
Napoli from Sevilla
This was a pretty difficult position to find. Most of the teams who were successful this season to one degree or another didn't rely on a new custodian. If you go back to Summer 2009, one would not have been unreasonable in projecting up-and-coming Spaniard Sergio Asenjo to win this position. However he flopped and lost out to his backup, who went on to win the Europa League. De Sanctis came cheap, under 2 million Euros, and he delivered 15 clean sheets, as well as a 6th place finish to qualify Napoli for the Europa League next season. His performances merited him a callup to the Italian National provisional squad for the World Cup.


DEFENDER: Gabriel Heinze
Marseille from Real Madrid
Didier Deschamps brought in 11 new players in the Summer of 2009 to strengthen his squad, and Heinze was a rock in defense for them (don't laugh United and Real supporters. Marseille's GAA in Ligue 1 was 0.95 per game). A regular in the team that won French Ligue 1. In addition, he has six goals to his credit this campaign.

DEFENDER: Lucio
Inter Milan from Bayern Munich
It probably helps his cause that arguably the World's best goalkeeper plays behind him for club and country, but Lucio is easily a better option in the center of the Nerazzurri defense than an aging and erratic Marco Materazzi. Helped to marshall an Inter defense that was best in Italy this season and has been key in the Champions League run-up.

DEFENDER: Raul Albiol
Real Madrid from Valencia
While the attention was on superstars like Ronaldo, Kaka, and Benzema, Raul Albiol was a safe purchase for Florentino Perez and proved a source of stability in the Real Madrid defense, making 41 total appearances. Part of a defense who recorded the 2nd fewest goals against in La Liga this season and had to do much of it without Pepe from Portugal, who missed a huge portion of the season through injury.

DEFENDER: Aly Cissokho
Lyon from FC Porto
Much is made about the performances that Lisandro Lopez and Michel Bastos had for Les Gones in their first season, but I was quite impressed with Cissokho's first run through Stade Gerland. Funny how he ended up in Lyon, as AC Milan actually had a deal in place to sign him first. However, he failed his physical, as there was something in his teeth that indicate potential for spinal trouble (a spinal cord specialist needs to explain this to me). Milan's loss was Lyon's gain, as Cissokho appeared in 48 matches in all competitions. Included in that were all 14 matches of Lyon's memorable run through the Champions League semifinals.

WINGER: Arjen Robben
Bayern Munich from Real Madrid
Arrivals of the new cast of Los Galacticos in Madrid meant that Dutch winger Arjen Robben would be surplus to requirements. A nice surplus indeed, as Robben has played his way into 2010 World Player of the Year discussions (Messi still has an edge, but Robben should be invited as of now). His arrival in Bavaria meant the introduction of Robbery, the combination of Robben and Franck Ribery occupying the flanks.The Dutchman ended up having one of his best seasons, scoring 23 times in all competitions, including some breathtaking finishes to see off Fiorentina and Manchester United in the Champions League. His individual performances have the German outfit on the doorstep of the Treble.

MIDFIELDER: Xabi Alonso
Real Madrid from Liverpool
I'm probably going to get some arguments about this one, most coming from those who think Gareth Barry should make this list. However, I'll go with Alonso for the simple fact that he and Lassanna Diarra were essential in gluing the Madrid midfield together. Aside from their struggles with Barcelona, Milan, and Lyon, Los Merengues were as dominant as you can be without winning anything. Alonso's tackling and ball-winning abilities were useful for The White House, and sorely missed by Liverpool.

MIDFIELDER: Wesley Sneijder
Inter Milan from Real Madrid
I'll continue with another player who was surplus at Real Madrid, and is playing his way into the World Player of the Year discussion. Sneijder seemed to be a perfect fit for the Nerazzurri from the start. A link between the hardline midfield stoppers and the flashy stikers that Jose Mourinho had on offer. Sneijder was dangerous from a variety of positions on the pitch, creating and scoring goals alike this season. 8 goals in all competitions for the Dutchman who, like Robben, has Inter at the doorstep of a Treble.

WINGER: Cristiano Ronaldo
Real Madrid from Manchester United
If you wanted any indication of how valuable Ronaldo was to Los Merengues this season, just have a look at the first Sevilla game and the two Milan games where he was out through injury. No wins, two defeats, and a draw. Add the first of the two Clasicos where he tried to come back and was ineffective after attempting to play for 60 minutes. Nothing changed with the former World Player of the Year. 33 goals in all competitions and in a variety of ways.

FORWARD: Ivica Olic
Bayern Munich from Hamburg
Meet the only player on this list who was not purchased. Olic arrived on a free, and the Croatian International scored 20 goals in all competitions. You tell me a goal that Carlos Tevez scored this season that was more valuable than either of the goals Olic netted against Manchester United, or the hat trick against Lyon............... don't worry I'll wait...........................

FORWARD: Diego Milito
Inter Milan from Genoa
Diego Milito caught everyone's attention with his performances for Genoa last season, most importantly the attention of Jose Mourinho. 28 goals in all competitions this season, and many thought that Samuel Eto'o would be the new Inter striker to make this list. Perhaps none more important than the cool finish in Siena to win Inter a 5th consecutive Serie A title. Milito also netter the winner in the Coppa Italia final over Roma.

So there you have it, the team of good pickups for 2009-2010. Someone get snubbed? You have a different list than mine? You're more than welcome to drop a comment.

Shot From Distance 5.14.2010: Leo out at Milan.

Doing my usual checking of sites that I trust, I arrive to find out that first year manager Leonardo will mutually part ways with AC Milan after their final regular season match with Juventus.

This is an expected outcome, and one that was seen by yours truly, just last summer.

Carlo Ancelotti knew that the writing was on the wall, that Kaka needed to be sold to balance the books, and there would not be a lot of funds for summer transfers in 2009. Ancelotti had to decide whether he had done everything he could at Milanello and take on a new challenge, or stick around for a massive rebuilding project that likely wouldn't really get underway until 2010-11. Chelsea was far more attractive, because the squad is setup for a run at multiple titles, and was backed by an owner that could spend immediately on reinforcements to replace aging stars like Michael Ballack and Deco. A far more attractive proposition than to manage a side that would have to absorb at least one year of transition before being able to rebuild their squad.

Stands to reason why an manager with no experience, like Leonardo, was appointed to the San Siro hot seat. No manager in the upper echelon would have been willing to walk into this situation. My guess is the phone conversation with a world-class coach went something like this:

"Hello, this is Adriano Galliani. We would like you to manage AC Milan this season. You interested? Great! Now, I must warn you that our long-time captain is retired and there is no talking him out of that. In addition, we have to sell our best player to Spain in order to balance the books. Having said that, there aren't going to be a lot of funds available to reinforce the squad, just a Dutch striker that struggled to get into the Spanish team we sold our best player to. Oh, and we'll be bringing in that over 30-something Brit in January. You know, the one that's playing in America right now. Still interested? Hello? Hello? Damn. Mr. Berlusconi, cross another one off the list."

By Galliani's own admission, he had to convince Leonardo to come in and manage this scrap heap. And he had to be thinking in the back of his mind all along that this would be a one-and-done situation. It became the perfect solution. Bring in a man with no experience. If he succeeds, it's a masterstroke by the upper management at Milanello. If he fails, well, he's inexperienced and that's where the problems started. Leo was brought in to keep it glued together, and keep their place in the UEFA Champions League.

What ended up happening with the 2009-2010 edition of AC Milan was simple. Leonardo, in his first year managing at any level, became a symbol of stability in a wildly inconsistent season for the Rossoneri. The preseason and first Milan derby, all told, were a disaster. It really hit rock bottom in a home loss to FC Zurich in the UEFA Champions League. Everyone was calling for Leo's head, blaming his inexperience as a manager as you would expect. Then, something happened in Spain. They went to play Kaka and Real Madrid, and against all expectations, stormed out 3-2 winners. It ignited a string of positive results, with brilliant attacking displays along the way. Suddenly, Milan had the look of a team that could contend for the Serie A title, though the Champions League was still going to be a bit out of reach. And despite being thrashed by Manchester United in the knockouts of the Champions League, they were within touching distance of Inter for top spot in Serie A. Injuries to key players like Alexandre Pato and Alessandro Nesta would suddenly curb their title challenge, but Leo kept the team together, and guided them to that 3rd place and automatic Champions League spot for next season.

To sum it up, Leonardo proved his worth as manager this season. He walked into a thankless situation and can walk out with his head held high. Leonardo simply exceeded expectations that the world footballing audience had for this Milan team. He got the best out of Ronaldinho (though it remains to be seen if Dinho was simply motivated to get a World Cup place with Brazil, and how he'll play now that he didn't). Thiago Silva played his way into being one of the best central defenders in the world. Ignazio Abate became a servicable right back, despite his natural winger position. And Marco Borriello flourished in his 4-3-3 system to the point where he earned a callup to Italy's World Cup provisional roster. There are many things that the Brazilian can be proud of in his one season in charge, it's just a pity he won't be staying around for Milan's rebuilding.

So, Mr. Galliani, Leo kept it together. Now make that call to a manager who can push Milan forward.

Shot From Distance 5.13.2010: 5 Who should be on World Cup Rosters, and 5 who shouldn't.

Now we know the provisional rosters for most of the power teams that are going to the World Cup. Managers have selected anywhere from 23 (the number they are allowed to take) to 30. The headache now for the likes of Fabio Capello, Vicente Del Bosque, Marcello Lippi, Dunga, and Diego Maradona is who to leave behind. After reading up on each of the rosters, there are suprising omissions, as well as surprise selections. Here is a rundown of who got screwed, and who should be lucky to be in a World Cup camp.

5 Players who should be on a Provisional World Cup Roster.

1. Esteban Cambiasso, Argentina: Diego Maradona seriously must not want Argentina to win the World Cup. Cambiasso is an engine room midfielder that would be a far more perfect fit for the Argentine setup than Javier Mascherano. Cambiasso organizes a midfield, connects with his defenders for compactness, and is not a ticking time bomb like Mascherano. Maradona could have had a Cambiasso-Mascherano holding midfield to do the dirty work, to free up the likes of Messi, Tevez, and Aguero to attack. Need more evidence? See the brilliant performance he turned in for his club, Inter, over Barcelona in the Champions League.
2. Joao Moutinho, Portugal: Club teammate Pedro Mendes gets in over him, as does an aging Deco. While the latter makes sense from an experience and leadership standpoint, I would have thought Moutinho would have been a good selection here. He's a versatile midfield player mostly known for his playmaking with Sporting Lisbon, and gave a decent account at Euro 2008 (had an assist in a group win over Turkey).
3. Antonio Nocerino, Italy: While many will be stewing over the omission of Francesco Totti, I thought Nocerino deserved a call-up. Lippi seems to be going straight 4-3-3 all the way which will not require the need of a link between the midfield and forwards. Nocerino would have been a nice fit in the engine room of the midfield. He has done well as captain of the many Azzurrini teams through the years, and was part of a Palermo side that made considerable improvement throughout the season. He's viewed as Gattuso's heir apparent, and probably should have gotten a chance over the veteran, considering the lack of games Gattuso got with Milan this season.
4. Thomas Hitzlsperger, Germany: To me this is a surprising omission from Joachim Low, perhaps this is because Hitzlsperger only made 3 appearnces for Lazio since transferring over in January from Stuttgart. Still, he appeared in every qualifier except one and started in each of the knockout rounds in Euro 2008.
5. Phillipe Mexes, France: The French are complaining mainly about the omissions of players like Karim Benzema, Patrick Vieira, and Samir Nasri. While all three of these are deserving to be in any France setup (under a manager who isn't crazy), I was surprised to see Mexes get snubbed. Rod Fanni from Rennes made the provisional squad, as did a William Gallas who can't seem to stay fit.

*Honorable mention to Uruguay's Christian Rodriguez, who was left out because he has to serve a 2-match International ban. I probably would have taken him if I'm Oscar Washington Tabarez because he could be influential in that third match (against Mexico), to set up Forlan and Suarez, and help Uruguay to the knockout rounds.*

5 Who Hopefully will not get on the plane to South Africa:

1. Gennaro Gattuso, Italy: And it really pains me to say it, because he is one of my all time favorite Milan players. The Snarling Dog has hardly gotten a sniff for Milan this season, and who knows if he will be able to discover his form in time for the World Cup. I mentioned that Nocerino would have been a better call, Luca Cigarini would have made sense too.
2. Jamie Carragher, England: Far be it for me to criticize Fabio Capello and his thought process, but why bring a player out of retirement at a position that you are already deep at? Rio and Terry will start, and you have cover with Ledley King, Michael Dawson, and Matthew Upson. Carragher might be going to South Africa at the expense of King, Dawson, or Upson. But if this was just to bring Carra into camp, Phil Jones of Blackburn might have been a better option for the experience.
3. Grafite, Brazil: Dunga goes with a striker who has only made 2 senior appearances, instead of any one of Ronaldinho, Pato, or Adriano. The expectation is that this is going to be a more tactically rigid Brazil team, and Dunga didn't want to overload on playmakers. Still, Ronaldinho would have been a more sensible choice here to give some playmaking and width late in a match.
4. Martin Palermo, Argentina: He's 36! And there are already far better options in attack with Lionel Messi, Sergio Aguero, Carlos Tevez, and Gonzalo Higuain to name a few. Maradona's affinity for Boca Juniors is the only explanation that Palermo is on the provisional list over Lisandro Lopez, who was brilliant for Lyon this season.
5. Lukas Podolski, Germany: Low better have it right in terms of his confidence in Podolski, because Kevin Kuranyi's 18 goals for Schalke were left out.

So who do you think got snubbed, and who do you think don't belong? Hit me up with your thoughts.

Shot From Distance 4.29.2010: Silvio Berlusconi knows nothing about football.

In the words of famous Onion columnist Jim Anchower: "I know it's been awhile since I last rapped at ya."

I have tried in my time to either inform, vent, or both about the happenings in football across the pond. My favorite team is Milan. Win, lose, draw, I'll die with the colors of the Rossoneri in my heart. I've done my best to keep this particular blog from being too Milan-slanted. Yet I find myself having to address a potential disaster.

There has been much discussion of late regarding first-year manager Leonardo's future with the club at Milanello. Some discussion was going on that he would take over for Dunga as Brazil National team coach after the World Cup. Nonetheless, as the Rossoneri are assure of yet another trophy-less season, the rumors are circulating.

Let me take you back 10 years. Just a day or so removed from Euro 2000, Silvio Berlusconi (Italian PM and Milan Owner) criticizes Italy manager Dino Zoff for his tactics in the final against France, that Italy came within seconds of winning. Zoff reacted by handing in his resignation. Basically a "piss off" gesture to someone of power running his mouth.

To the present, where I jump onto an article from http://www.football365.com/, a British-slanted football website that has time to present us with this article, via Corriere Dello Sport:

http://www.football365.com/story/0,17033,8652_6123052,00.html

In that bit of journalism, the man who is wearing two hats, and a bunch of facelifts, drops this gem on the Italian paper:

Milan owner Silvio Berlusconi is reported to have told the Corriere dello Sport newspaper: "Yes he will leave, we are working on a new coach.
"The new coach? There are talks in place with others. Leonardo has been too tough headed and the team has played badly this season."

Thank you Mr. Berlusconi. You have proven that, in the span of 10 years, you know absolutely NOTHING about football. But since you are the Italian Prime Minister, you feel you have a license to just run your mouth, that has likely been repaired multiple times.

The Italy team from 2000 had almost no business getting to the Euro 2000 final, and further had no business coming within seconds of beating World Champion France. France won 2-1 in extra time if you recall. If Fabio Cannavaro was approximately 6 inches taller, Sylvain Wiltord doesn't get that last-gasp equalizer. Zoff constructed a brilliant tactical approach, and is the only manager to have gotten the maximum out of Stefano Fiore (you tell me what Fiore had done as a footballer since then......... don't worry I'll wait..........). He also was successful in ignoring the calls for Del Piero to be a regular starter in favor of a rising star by the name of Francesco Totti. Totti was brilliant in the Euro 2000 tournament. Just have a look at those two point blank misses from Del Piero in the final that would have sealed it, and it proves my point. He might have had to resort to anti-football (better referred to as catenaccio) in the semifinal against host Holland (a heavy favorite after dumping Yugoslavia 6-1), but what would you have done on 10 men when Gianluca Zambrotta was sent off in the 35th minute. Blame Holland for missing not one, but two penalties in regulation that match. Berlusconi's biggest beef about the final was that Zoff failed to recognize that Zinedine Zidane needed to be man-marked. Uhhh, so Demetrio Albertini was just spending that final chasing butterflies, right mister Prime Minister? Zidane was not much of a factor that night.

Flash forward to now. It should surprise no one that Leonardo, despite keeping this team glued together all season long, was just going to be a glorified patsy. The problem with upper management at AC Milan is that they take absolutely no accountability for their actions. You hand the keys to a Ferrari over to an inexperienced manager, and then you essentially remove the engine (Maldini) and transmission (Kaka) from it. You replace the engine with one that's fit for a Pinto (Maldini for Ambrosini), and while the new transmission is okay (Ronaldinho), it's not symbolic of the face of the team for the last five-plus years. The parts are old and worn out (Ambrosini, Gattuso, Inzaghi, Favalli, Oddo, Kaladze, Beckham, Jankulovski, Dida, Zambrotta, Seedorf, and Pirlo) but you still expect Leo to drive it at its optimum.

To complicate matters, arguably the two best players on the team, Alessandro Nesta and Pato, have been injured and out since March. So what do you expect when players like Guiseppe Favalli and Massimo Oddo have to play in the center of defense out of necessity? At that point, you can't do anything else except try and hang on to your Champions League place for next season.

I gave the AC Milan preview on World Soccer Daily back in August (look for the podcast on itunes, somewhere in the middle of August 2009, maybe the 12th or 13th). I had NO expectations for the team to win anything this season. My prediction was for them to finish 3rd (which they currently hold but are even in danger of losing that) and reach the knockouts of the Champions League. That was about as much as you could expect with this roster. The only thing you could expect Leonardo to do this year was keep this thing glued together, and maintain a place in next season's Champions League.

Give this guy a chance to manage a team with younger talent. Look at what he has done with Ignazio Abate for example. Taking a player who has been a winger and training him to be a full back. Abate might have made a couple mistakes out of lack of experience, but overall you have to give him a passing grade for the job he has done. Thiago Silva has matured into a world-class center half. Luca Antonini has been at least serviceable (and proved to be a far better option than Jankulovski). Klaas Jan Huntelaar might have been a fish out of water for most of this season, but give the guy a chance, he has proven he can score goals.

Mr. Berlusconi needs to take a closer look at the team he has invested in over the years. There is no doubt he has been the financial principal of Milan's most successful period in history, but his and Adriano Galliani's penchant for living in the past is the result of the perceived failures for the Milan of today. Leonardo has been pure class in a trying season for anyone who is managing for the first time, he is the least of this clubs problems.

Some of the old parts to the Ferrari, though, need to be replaced. That's where it has to start, and to a point where someone who cares about this team and knows his football can step in and fix what has been a beautiful machine.

Shot from Distance 4.8.2010: Fergie's lost the plot, again.

If this isn't the best piece I have ever written, it's because "typical Germans" have placed an influence on how I write my blogs.

Because Rio Ferdinand, Nemanja Vidic, Darren Fletcher, Edwin van der Sar, or Wayne Rooney would never, ever try to influence the referee into a decision. No not them, they behave like little angels..................... you can see I obviously have a lot of time for Sir Alex's remarks after United went out on away goals to Bayern Munich yesterday in the UEFA Champions League. I need to start by berating the people who have put comments to articles or message boards that insist Fergie's comments about "typical Germans" were racist. Racist would have been if the Grumpy Scot would have dropped an n-bomb on us in referring to Didier Drogba and his offside goal on Saturday. If you want to call it taking a jab at a culture, then you are on the right track.
Yes, I think the comment was over the top, and I might give some leeway to the fact that the match ended, his team was bounced at home, and he was furious about it. Yet, never, never, never, never attack a culture or a creed or a religion in any post game rant. He is only making himself fair game to the rest of us. It's bad enough he has a whine and a pop at the officials after seemingly every match he lost. When he wins, Ferguson credits his players and the opposition for the effort. When he loses, an official's fault. At least that's the priority and after that is a small quip about the other team being deserving, or in the case of yesterday, a wonder goal that sent them out.
Finally, it's not "typical German" behavior, it's gamesmanship no matter who is playing. Whether you like it or not, all teams do it. I remember a couple years back when Liverpool and Inter played, Marco Materazzi was on a yellow, he fouls Fernando Torres. Torres looks up at the official with 2 fingers in the air to signal "2nd yellow." Of course Materazzi's tackle was a little harsher than Rafael's challenge, but nonetheless the influence came from Torres (might not have mattered but he did it anyway). Players and managers will work the officials. It happens in football, and it pretty much happens in every other sport (college hoop season just finished, and Coach K for Duke is a master at this).

So Rafael was sent off and everyone wants to say that was the turning point. To me that's a typical loser excuse, seen and heard it enough. I have a few things for the United players and their oenophiliac of a manager (wine lover for those of you who are inadequately educated) to consider for the next time:

1. Pay Attention. The loss of concentration from the United players when they did have 11 players out there contributed to their downfall far more than Rafael being sent off. Simply look at the two goals from Ivica Olic over the tie. Evra getting dispossessed way too cheaply toward the end of the first leg and the lack of defenders and poor marking on the goal at Old Trafford just before halftime in the 2nd leg. If you're good enough to lift the cup with the big ears, you need to avoid both of those situations and close things out.
2. Wayne Rooney can't be the be-all end-all of how you perform. If you're relying on one player to get it done for you, or to even inspire you, it's pretty surprising you got this far in the first place. If you're playing for a team like Manchester United, that should mean you are a professional playing at the highest level. Yes, Wayne Rooney is very influential, and up until his injury was maybe neck and neck with Messi in World Player of the Year status. However, it becomes what the team can do. United had 90 minutes without Rooney against Chelsea, and had a sample of what they needed to do to adjust without his presence. So when they had to bring him off, the team should have stepped up, no matter how many men they had out there. Nani took cue, but the rest of the team looked far too complacent. Which leads me to......
3. No matter the numbers, you have to have a striker out there. If anything, to have a reference for the other 8 players and goalkeeper to play to. I think Ferguson is a managerial genius, all those trohies say so. But that should have been a double-substitution on 55 minutes, with Berbatov on for Rooney and John O'Shea ending Darren Gibson's night (or Michael Carrick's). With no true striker, that is an unreasonable amount of pressure for United's rearguard to absorb. Sir should claim some responsibility for that and soon, to deflect the attention of his cultural jab.

I have only been aware of one occasion where Ferguson conceded defeat, that was last season's Champions League final loss to Barcelona. And the way that match went, he had no choice but to credit the Blaugrana. This is just something we're going to have to live with when you are talking about Sir Alex Ferguson. A brilliant manager, one of the best of all time, but a man who endangers having his history tarnished because he continues to point fingers publicly than to accept responsibility.

Shots From Distance 4.5.2010: The resurrection of Chelsea, should Roon play, and other stuff.

After using the Champions League to play my way back into the Bayern Munich lineup, I endanger my team's lead against Schalke by getting a yellow for bumping the assistant referee, and follow that up with another yellow for clumsily challenging a Schalke player. No wonder my manager is hoping that Arjen Robben will be fit for Wednesday's match.



Most sent email in the last 24 hours:



From: England Fan
To: Sir Alex Ferguson, Manchester United
Subject: Wayne Rooney's place against Bayern on Wednesday



Dear Sir,



In considering this, please see Cesc Fabregas and William Gallas.



Sincerely,

England Fan



Still to be determined if this email actually exists:



From: Carlo Ancelotti, Chelsea Manager
To: Sir Alex Ferguson, Manchester United
Cc: Arsene Wenger, Arsenal
Subject: Wayne Rooney's place against Bayern on Wednesday



Dear Sir,



You have to go for it, give it your all. Get the boy out there and get the result you need to catapult you to Champions League glory! Frenchy in North London was brave enough last week. What, no balls there Fergie?



Carlo

PS I'll kick in a vintage if you play him.





Not necessarily like the humor of watching Sam Malone play Robin Colcord in chess, but entertaining nonetheless........I spent so much time in the table analysis of the English Premier League talking about how Ferguson would rally the troops to a draw on Saturday in the big clash against Chelsea. If anyone knows how to overcome losing a key player, it's the knighted one. In the process, I turned a blind eye to the astute tactician that Carlo Ancelotti can be. An embarrassing revelation, seeing how the Italian led my beloved Rossoneri to Champions League glory on two occasions as a manager.



First, looking at Fergie's team for this match. In the win over Liverpool, he used Park Ji Sung in a more central attacking role, almost as a striker partnering Rooney. I would have thought this was a cinch to see him in the same role, considering that Berbatov is not as mobile as Roon, and provides more of a high target presence. Park's runs off him would have been effective in pulling apart the central defense of Alex and John Terry for Chelsea. Just look at the Korean's winner against Liverpool. Rooney occupied a defender, and Park was free to head home Darren Fletcher's cross. Instead, Park was utilized wide, and from what I watched had little effect on the match. Sir attempts to rectify this by bringing on Giggs to play in that advanced central role (and not moving Park), and brings on Nani for Park.



With a 1-0 lead, what Carlo Ancelotti did was a masterstroke. Nani was likely instructed to play higher on the left, and the Italian brought on Solomon Kalou to occupy the right flank. Kalou had space on the right in one of his first attacks, a sign of the danger. And he started the attack again that led to the winner from Drogba (though offside). Fergie had to go for it, and Carlo made a ballsy decision that led to a moment that could define the title race.


*The author of this blog that maybe 6 people read if I'm lucky has elected not to make any conversation about Simon Beck and his ineptitude. Nor will I make any chatter about the Grumpy Scot's continued reliance on players like Paul Scholes, Gary Neville, and Ryan Giggs. While all are United legends, all are well into the twilight of their careers.*

*I should also call out that on more than one occasion the camera panned to a section of Old Trafford where Portugal manager Carlos Queiroz and Ivory Coast manager Sven Goran Eriksson were seated, with some random guy sitting between them. It's easy to speculate that since the two nations face each other in the World Cup, you would think the man was placed to prevent any further slapboxing between the two gaffers. SFD cannot confirm nor deny that any slapboxing took place.*

And as for idiot bloggers who wrote about Chelsea's demise. Wink, wink, hint, hint........................ I guess I didn't see this coming, but I also made projections based on Wayne Rooney being fit. Additionally, I also based predictions and conclusions on the fact that Florent Malouda would continue to be ordinary. My bad.

But just because Chelsea has regained their place at the top of the table doesn't necessarily mean it will end up there when all the games are played. Their home schedule has as about the same set of challenges that you have when you put your finger through the inside of a twinkie. However, two interesting away fixtures await them; Tottenham and Liverpool. Two sides that are desparate to get all the points they can so they can join the Blues in the Champions League next season.



But when Mr. Burns brought off Darryl Strawberry to have Homer pinch hit for him in the Springfield v Shelbyville Softball final, it worked............ maybe I don't coach at the level that Rafa Benitez does but I do know a couple things about substitutions and decision making. In my time and involvement in this beautiful game, I have arrived at a universal truth: NEVER BRING OFF A PLAYER WHO CAN DECIDE A GAME. The only way Fernando Torres should have been brought off was for one of the following two reasons:

1. He was injured


2. Liverpool had the match in hand, a lead in the neighborhood of 3 or 4-nil.

Since neither was the case, and the Fat Spaniard said so as "I brought him off because he was tired" (paraphrasing, he of course was eating pastries when he said it). Maybe Rafa likes the relaxed environment of the Europa League after all.

But all the money we got for Darren Bent............. With Arsenal (H), Chelsea (H), and Manchester United (A) as their next three fixtures, along with Manchester City (A) before the season is up, that was a bad 3 points for Tottenham to drop.

Amusing moment of the weekend......................... Watching Burnley supporters leave Turfmoor 7 minutes into their team's match with Manchester City, when they fell behind 3-0 en route to a 6-1 thrashing that probably could have been worse if the pitch didn't get so waterlogged.

Because I am spending wayyyyyy too much time on England........... Credit to Louis van Gaal's men for finding the resolve to travel to Gelsenkirchen and beat Schalke 04 2-1. If you read the very opening statement of this installment of SFD, you'll know the player I am referring to is Turkish international Hamit Altintop. With Leverkusen's loss this weekend to Monchengladbach, it would be safe to say that the Bavarians are in the driver's seat.

My understanding is that Nigel Winterburn, Ray Parlour, Luis Enrique, Albert Ferrer, Ian Wright, Hristo Stoichkov, David Seaman, and Andoni Zubizeretta are available for call-up. And rumor has it that Pep will trade the suit for the Blaugrana stripes too................. So add Alexander Song and Zlatan Ibrahimovic to the collective mash unit of players for Barcelona and Arsenal. Throw in the suspensions of Pique and Puyol for Barca, and you may see them asking the old-timers to hash this one out. Seriously, the lineups should look like this:

Barcelona: Valdes- Alves- Milito- Marquez- Maxwell- Keita- Busquets- Xavi- Pedro- Henry- Messi

Arsenal: Almunia- Sagna- Campbell (doubtful- knee)- Vermaelen- Clichy- Denilson- Diaby- Eboue- Nasri- Walcott- Bendtner

Team with the most players standing at the end wins.

That's about all I had for this week. A little skewed to British footy but Serie A was rather uneventful this weekend with the top 3 all winning. Until next time......

Table Analysis: English Premier League

Well didn't things get really interesting thanks to some injuries that came from Champions League games? Another league where three teams are in contention, and they all have 6 matches remaining. Although many twists in the plot, with key injuries for each team providing some maches that aren't necessarily sure things:



CURRENT TABLE

1. Manchester United: 72 points


2. Chelsea: 71 points


3. Arsenal: 68 points

Manchester United
Remaining Fixtures: Chelsea (H), Blackburn (A), Manchester City (A), Tottenham (H), Sunderland (A), Stoke City (H)
OUTLOOK: I'll have a take in my next blog about how Sir Alex Ferguson's genius will really have to come through with the Wayne Rooney injury. The defending champions face some immediate challenges without their talisman, especially considering the crunch match against Chelsea this Saturday. Yet even before Rooney went down in Munich, United's path to a 4th straight title was already tough enough. If they rush him back for the Manchester derby, be ready for Toure, Lescott, Kompany, et al to be instructed to see how healed that ankle really is. Blackburn are a team on the rise and have been particularly good at home (unbeaten at Ewood in their last 7). Tottenham have been one of the better away sides all season (4th in league) and they'll be fighting for the last Champions League place. Sunderland's home form has been good but they have struggled lately, and getting Stoke at home is a sure three points.
WHAT'S REASONABLE TO EXPECT: A slip up, and in all likelihood with Rooney out. I can see them splitting points with Chelsea at Old Trafford, they'll squeak by Blackburn, and draw at City. After that, they should beat Spurs, Sunderland, and Stoke. 4 wins, 2 draws. 14 points for a finish of 86 points.

Chelsea
Remaining fixtures: Manchester United (A), Bolton (H), Tottenham (A), Stoke City (H), Liverpool (A), Wigan (H)
OUTLOOK: Chelsea didn't play at midweek and might have been the biggest winners of all with the injuries to Rooney and Arsenal's Cesc Fabregas. Chelsea had been laboring for sometime now with their own injury issues that have seen players like Ricardo Carvalho, Ashley Cole, and Michael Essien all spending more time with the physios than on the pitch. Carlo Ancelotti has been around the block enough to know that Chelsea doesn't have the big an advantage. Looking at the remaining fixtures should be enough evidence as to why. The home fixtures are all comfortable, but it's as brutal an away fixture list as you would like for a team that is trying to win the Premier League. Liverpool's home record has been perfect in league play since a 2-1 loss to Arsenal back on December 13th of this year. Seeing how Chelsea has had away issues recently, that should be a concern. Tottenham are fighting to keep the final Champions League place as mentioned as well.
WHAT'S REASONABLE TO EXPECT: Already I've said Saturday's clash with United will be a draw, and they should get all 9 points from their remaining home fixtures. I have United finishing on 86 points, meaning Chelsea will have to take full points at White Hart Lane and Anfield. While I think they'll beat Spurs, United fans will be in the soul-selling act of thanking Scousers for beating Chelsea. And the irony of Liverpool being responsible for United passing them on top flight league titles. 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat. 13 points for a total of 84 points.

Arsenal
Remaining Fixtures: Wolves (H), Tottenham (A), Wigan (A), Manchester City (H), Blackburn (A), Fulham (H).
OUTLOOK: Another third place team that is stumbling to the finish line. Milan on injuries, Leverkusen on form. Arsenal are in Milan's boat thanks to the Fabregas injury, but also with Arshavin and Gallas getting knocks in the Barcelona match. They'll need to be perfect to catch United on points the way it is playing out, and then outlast them on goal difference. The fixture list gives them that opportunity. The away fixtures are all manageable, they've seemed to be in control of the North London derby no matter where it's played (save for a 4-4 draw from last season) and they get City at home. Fulham may possibly be in the Europa League final and may not have too much concern for their league standing.
WHAT'S REASONABLE TO EXPECT: That winning six straight is possible. Wolves, Wigan, Blackburn, and Fulham should all be winnable for them (if the Fulham match was at Craven Cottage then I'd think differently). They still have enough resources to win at Spurs, but with all the injuries they may have to settle for a draw there. Additionally, I think they'll draw the City game as well. 4 wins, 2 draws. 14 points for a finish of 82 points.

Thanks to Liverpool, Manchester United should finish off as champions again. The term "mental strength" gets tossed around all the time, and with all his experience, I think Sir Alex will come up with a way to rally his team without Rooney. They'll stem the tide, hold off Chelsea this weekend, and find ways to get the points needed to win the title.

Table Analysis: German Bundesliga

Yesterday it was looking at how Serie A might finish, today the emphasis is on Germany. Like Italy, there are 3 contenders. Each have 6 matches remaining. Let's have a look at the contenders and their remaining fixtures:

CURRENT TABLE

1. Schalke 04: 58 points
2. Bayern Munich: 56 points
3. Bayer Leverkusen: 53 points

Schalke 04
Remaining Fixtures: Bayern Munich (H), Hannover 96 (A), Borussia M'Bach (H), Hertha Berlin (A), Werder Bremen (H), Mainz (A)
OUTLOOK: The obvious emphasis here is going to be on this Saturday's showdown with Bayern. Beyond that, though, it is a very manageable schedule. The toughest fixture after Saturday is Werder Bremen, and that's in Gelsenkirchen. Two of their three away fixtures are against teams in the drop, Hannover and Hertha Berlin, while away to Mainz will be tricky as they currently boast the 5th best home record. With Schalke having the best away record in the Bundesliga, my guess is they will get all 9 points from their fixtures away from Gelsenkirchen. So it will come down to the home dates with Bayern Munich and Werder Bremen. Win this Saturday against the Bavarians, and they'll open a 5 point gap and have one hand on the title. Two other things are going for them at the moment. 1) the best defensive record in the league conceding only 22 goals and 2) Felix Magath, who as I've said in blogs past knows how to win in Germany.
WHAT'S REASONABLE TO EXPECT: I can see them splitting points at home with Bayern and being satisfied with that, but I can't see them beating Werder who are running really strong at the moment and have the 2nd best away record (not to mention Bremen might fancy still sneaking into that 3rd spot). The other 4 matches should be wins though against 2 relegation strugglers and 2 sides who won't have much to play for. 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat. 13 points to finish the season on 71 points.

Bayern Munich
Remaining Fixtures: Schalke 04 (A), Bayer Leverkusen (A), Hannover 96 (H), Borussia M'Bach (A), VFL Bochum (H), Hertha Berlin (A).
OUTLOOK: We're going to know just how good a manager Louis van Gaal is these days and how much resolve Bayern has in what will be the two biggest weeks of the season. They need to find a way to take points from their fellow Bundesliga contenders in away fixtures, as well as negotiate their way to the Champions League semifinals. An unenviable position for anyone to be in. After that it's nice and squishy for them as the highest position for the remaining opponents is 12th, an away fixture with Monchengladbach. It's going to be imperative for them to at least split points with Schalke 04 this Saturday, and I already think that's going to end in a draw. After that, they should win out. Leverkusen is still in this, but the wheels have fallen off their wagon only taking 9 points from their last 8 matches and conceding 14 goals in that process. Mario Gomez is getting healthy for the stretch run, and Arjen Robben ought to feature again. Based on things coming together, I really can't see Bayen losing another match.
WHAT'S REASONABLE TO EXPECT: I think they'll be disappointed to draw this Saturday but the remaining 5 matches are all very winnable fixtures for one reason or another. 5 and a draw is very likely here. 5 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses. 16 points to finish on 72 points.

Bayer Leverkusen
Remaining Fixtures: Eintracht Frankfurt (A), Bayern Munich (H), VFB Stuttgart (A), Hannover 96 (H), Hertha Berlin (H), Borussia M'Bach (A).
OUTLOOK: Seeing that I think Bayern will finish on 72, the most Bayer Leverkusen can get is 68 points (I have them losing to Bayern so they won't finish on 71). Even at that, I think reaching that number is out of the question. Eintracht Frankfurt has been solid this season and will be a tricky away fixture. Stuttgart has had a revival under Christian Gross and have 16 points from their last 8 matches (3rd best of any team in that span). They are only 5 back with 6 games remaining and anything can happen, but realistically this will be a tough task on their current form.
WHAT'S REASONABLE TO EXPECT: Like evaluating Milan yesterday, Leverkusen's priority should be on consolidating the 3rd and final Champions League place. They have Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen both closing very strong right now and 4 and 5 points behind Leverkusen, respectively. I can see them drawing this weekend with Eintracht, but I can't see them getting anything from Bayern or Stuttgart with the way they are playing, and more worryingly, conceding goals. 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 defeats. 10 points to finish on 63 points.

Interesting that Borussia M'Bach, Hannover, and Hertha all get to play a role in this. In Hannover and Hertha's case, it won't help them in their fight to avoid relegation to have to play the top three. As you can see, I like Bayern to overtake Schalke and win this year's Bundesliga by the slimmest of margins. Meanwhile, the 63 for Leverkusen may not be enough for 3rd depending on what Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen do. Should be a fun few weeks to finish the season.

Table Analysis: Serie A

Three teams, with 3 points separating 3rd from 1st. 7 matches remaining for each team. Time to look at the remaining fixtures for the title contenders and figure out who will come out on top.

CURRENT TABLE

1. Inter Milan: 63 points.
2. AS Roma: 61 points.
3. AC Milan: 60 points.

Inter
Reamining Fixtures: Bologna (H), Fiorentina (A), Juventus (H), Atalanta (H), Lazio (A), Chievo (H), Siena (A)
OUTLOOK: Inter appear to have the most favorable fixture list of all the contenders. The toughest match is Fiorentina away, but they get Juventus home. The other 5 teams are sitting 13th or lower with 2 of the teams (Atalanta and Siena) currently in the drop. The issues with this team are 1. Discipline, 2. The Champions League distraction and 3. Jose Mourinho's constant flirtation with returning to England. Inter are a team whose players seem to get suspended for rather silly reasons, not to mention the next touchline ban for Mourinho whenever it happens. In addition, they'll fancy their chances as a team who can make life difficult for Arsenal or Barcelona, that is of course if they survive CSKA Moscow in the Champions League. Finally, at what point does Mourinho's desire to return to England or try and capture La Liga in Spain finally become a distraction in the Nerazzurri dressing room.
WHAT'S REASONABLE TO EXPECT: I think Inter's remaining defeat in league will be at Fiorentina, while they'll likely split points with Juventus. Beyond that, I can't imagine they'll drop points to the other five teams on the schedule. 5 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat for 16 points to finish out the season on 79 points.

AS Roma
Remaining Fixtures: Bari (A), Atalanta (H), Lazio (A- Derby), Sampdoria (H), Parma (A), Cagliari (H), Chievo (A).
OUTLOOK: This isn't a bad list for a team that has made an unlikely surge, and is looking to continue to put the pressure on the 4-time defending champions. They start with a Bari side that has been sneaky good at the San Nicola, and unbeaten in their last 5. 3 points is a requirement in that one. The home list is rather comfortable as Sampdoria looks like the toughest match, and they have been uninspiring away and against top half competition. You would think Cagliari would be a tough task, but the wheels have fallen off lately. Parma away is brutal as well, as they have taken points from both Inter and Milan there. It's been an impressive run for the Giallorossi, currently on a 21 match unbeaten run to get to this point. Luca Toni has been a revelation for them, and Daniele De Rossi is playing as well as anyone in Italy at this point, just in time for the World Cup. Hard to imagine they are often doing this without Francesco Totti, but they've come together quite impressively.
WHAT'S REASONABLE TO EXPECT: If I have Inter finishing on 79 points, then Roma must finish on 19 to overtake them or 18 and hope for a better goal difference. That their due for a defeat somewhere and manager Claudio Ranieri's track record for being a bridesmaid (2nd place finishes with Juventus and Chelsea in recent years) prevent me from believing this can happen. I think the fixture list has enough landmines, Parma in particular, to prevent them from overhauling the champions. I see a defeat at Parma, and draws with Bari and Lazio. 4 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat. 13 points to finish the season on 74 points.

AC Milan
Remaining Fixtures: Cagliari (A), Catania (H), Sampdoria (A), Palermo (A), Fiorentina (H), Genoa (A), Juventus (H).
OUTLOOK: If the Rossoneri were hoping to make a strong push to end the season, the scheduling gods didn't do them any favors. The lowest positioned opponent left is Catania (14th), and that's a home match. Five of their opponents are all going to be spending the rest of the season jockeying for position in European places with one Champions League place available and the likelihood that one or two of those teams could be left out of Europe altogether. Cagliari might be dipping, but on 40 points they are not far off of a place either. Palermo and Genoa are as rough as it gets for away fixtures as they are currently 2nd and 4th, respectively, on their home ground (Palermo have yet to lose at home). Sampdoria is another side that have yet to lose on their ground as well. Yet, if they can recover Pato and if Ronaldinho can stay healthy, Milan are a side that can score on anyone as their remaining opponents do combine for a healthy 1.33 goals against average.
WHAT'S REASONABLE TO EXPECT: To be correct in determining any chance Milan had of winning the Scudetto was lost in their last three matches; an away defeat to Parma sandwiched by home draws with Napoli and Lazio. Considering the laundry list of injuries (especially in defense), and a daunting fixture list, consolidating 3rd should be Milan's focus for the remainder of the season. I can't see them winning at Sampdoria or Palermo, and they should split points with Juventus and Genoa. 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats. 11 points for a total of 71 points.

CONCLUSION: Pretty much going to be as you were with a little bit of separation down the stretch. Inter should clinch this on the 36th or 37th round. At the moment it is up for grabs, but Inter has by far the most favorable schedule of any of the teams left.